朝-韩全面战争能力评估（英文版）-战略与国际研究中心-2018.05-177页-5mb

The Korean Civil-Military Balance Summary

Core Content

This report analyzes the civil and military balance between North and South Korea, emphasizing that while the nuclear threat is significant, the overall military and civil capabilities of the two states must be considered for a comprehensive understanding of regional security. It highlights the differences in economic development, governance, infrastructure, and military strength, and explores the implications of potential conflict.

Main Points

Civil Side of the Balance

• Economic Development: South Korea has a far more developed and diversified economy compared to North Korea. CIA estimates show South Korea's GDP is over 50 times that of North Korea.
• Population Vulnerability: South Korea has a high level of urbanization, making its major cities like Seoul extremely vulnerable to attacks. North Korea, on the other hand, has a more dispersed population with lower expectations, but its economy is less redundant and heavily reliant on a single semi-modern city, Pyongyang.
• Infrastructure: South Korea has a modern and resilient transport, communication, and energy system, while North Korea lacks comparable infrastructure, especially in terms of air and sea traffic, energy storage, and communication access.
• Governance: North Korea is an authoritarian state with a command economy, which allows for high militarization but limits economic growth. South Korea is a functioning democracy with a capitalist economy, making it more vulnerable to disruptions in economic operations and services.

Military Side of the Balance

• North Korea's Conventional Forces: North Korea has a large number of conventional forces, including main battle tanks, artillery, and combat ships, but suffers from poor weapon quality, limited sustainability, and outdated command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C$^4$I, IS&R) systems.
• U.S. Military Presence: The U.S. has a significant military presence in the region, with capabilities in air power, missile defense, and seapower. It can project force rapidly and has regular exercises with South Korea, enhancing interoperability.
• Missile and Nuclear Threats: North Korea has developed a range of ballistic and cruise missiles, and has nuclear capabilities. However, the precision of its missiles is limited, making them more suitable for terror attacks than targeted strikes.
• Asymmetric Warfare: North Korea's closed society and centralized decision-making structure give it an advantage in asymmetric warfare. It has deployed tunnels and missile-artillery systems across the DMZ, posing a threat to Seoul.
• Nuclear Impact: A nuclear strike on either Seoul or Pyongyang could cripple both regimes. South Korea's urban density and lack of dispersal capability make it particularly vulnerable to such an attack.

Key Information

Economic Data

Communication and Technology

• South Korea has a highly developed and accessible communication infrastructure, with 44.153 million internet users (89.9% of population).
• North Korea restricts access to all modern communication technologies, with only a limited number of state-sanctioned users.

Transportation and Energy

• South Korea has a modern and extensive transport system, including paved roads, expressways, and a large merchant marine.
• North Korea has limited infrastructure, with only a short pipeline and sparse paved roads.
• South Korea is a major importer of oil and gas and has a significant nuclear power industry.
• North Korea relies heavily on coal and has limited energy storage and redundancy.

Governance Ratings

• North Korea:
  • Voice and Accountability: 180th out of 193 (Very serious situation)
  • Political Stability and Absence of Violence: 174th out of 176 (Highly corrupt)
  • Government Effectiveness: 153rd out of 193 (Low Moral Freedom)
  • Regulatory Quality: 186th out of 193 (Serious)
  • Control of Corruption: 174th out of 176 (Highly corrupt)
• South Korea:
  • Voice and Accountability: 149th out of 193 (Moderate)
  • Political Stability and Absence of Violence: 167th out of 167 (Authoritarian)
  • Government Effectiveness: 153rd out of 193 (High)
  • Regulatory Quality: 167th out of 167 (High)
  • Control of Corruption: 167th out of 167 (High)

Vulnerabilities and Risks

• South Korea:
  • Highly dependent on modern infrastructure and services.
  • Vulnerable to attacks on major cities and economic disruption.
  • Limited dispersal and medical capacity in case of mass casualties.
• North Korea:
  • Severely limited economic and technological capabilities.
  • High vulnerability due to reliance on a single city and outdated systems.
  • Possible use of chemical and biological weapons, though evidence is limited.

Strategic Considerations

• The asymmetric balance is a critical factor, with North Korea's ability to conduct asymmetric warfare potentially offsetting its conventional disadvantages.
• Nuclear deterrence remains a key strategic element, with the U.S. and South Korea considering extended deterrence and potential nuclear options for South Korea.
• The missile balance is uncertain, with North Korea's increasing range and accuracy posing a growing threat.
• Regional Impact: A conflict could affect not only Korea but also Japan, China, and Russia, with significant economic and political consequences.

Conclusion

The report underscores the stark differences in economic, social, and military capabilities between North and South Korea. While North Korea has a large conventional military and nuclear arsenal, its economic and technological limitations, along with its closed society and outdated infrastructure, create significant vulnerabilities. South Korea, despite its economic and social development, faces unique challenges due to its urban density and reliance on modern systems. The report suggests that the U.S. must maintain a strong deterrence posture, and South Korea may need to consider nuclear options or enhanced missile defense systems to counter the growing threat from North Korea.