朝-韩全面战争能力评估（英文版）-战略与国际研究中心-2018.05-177页_5mb

Summary of The Korean Civil-Military Balance

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of the civil and military balance between North and South Korea, focusing on governance, economy, energy, communication, transportation, and military capabilities. It highlights the stark differences in development, infrastructure, and strategic vulnerabilities between the two Koreas, as well as the implications of these differences in the context of potential conflict.

Main Points

Governance

• North Korea:

  • The world's only successful modern hereditary dictatorship.
  • Governance is structured to preserve the rule of its leader and maintain high levels of militarization.
  • Governance ratings are among the lowest globally, with issues in voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.
  • Despite low ratings, the government has managed to maintain control through repression and force.

• South Korea:

  • Has gradually evolved into a working democracy.
  • Governance supports a modern trading state and moderate military efforts.
  • The World Bank ratings indicate it is more effective and stable compared to North Korea.

Economy

• North Korea:

  • Has a very low GDP, estimated at $40 billion (PPP) in 2015.
  • Per capita income is only $1,700, reflecting its underdeveloped and outdated economy.
  • Economic structure is heavily reliant on agriculture and has limited redundancy.

• South Korea:

  • Has a significantly higher GDP, estimated at $2,027 billion (PPP) in 2017.
  • Per capita income is $39,400, 23 times higher than North Korea's.
  • Economic system is more sophisticated, with a strong reliance on modern communication and infrastructure.

Energy

• North Korea:

  • Relies heavily on coal for energy production.
  • Has limited oil and gas resources and a very low installed electric generation capacity.
  • Approximately 30% of the population lacked electricity in 2013.

• South Korea:

  • A major importer of oil and gas and has developed a significant nuclear power industry.
  • Has a much higher electrification rate, with 100% of the population having access to electricity.
  • Has a more robust and survivable energy infrastructure.

Communication

• South Korea:

  • Permits access to all modern forms of communication.
  • Has 24 times more fixed phone lines and 18 times more cell phones than North Korea.
  • Has 44.153 million internet users, covering 89.9% of the population.

• North Korea:

  • Restricts access to all forms of communication and media.
  • Internet is limited to a small number of state-sanctioned users.
  • Has no independent media and actively jams foreign broadcasts.

Transportation

• South Korea:

  • Has a modern and survivable transport system, including a major civil air transport network, extensive pipeline infrastructure, and a well-developed road system.
  • Has 91,195 km of paved roads, including 4,193 km of expressways.

• North Korea:

  • Has a negligible civil air transport system and limited pipeline infrastructure.
  • Only has 724 km of paved roads.
  • Relies heavily on rail transport, with 7,435 km of track compared to South Korea's 3,874 km.

Military Balance

• North Korea:

  • Has a significant numerical advantage in conventional forces, including manpower, main battle tanks, and artillery.
  • Lacks in quality, advanced C$^4$I, IS&R, and battle management systems.
  • Has a major lead in missile capabilities, including short, medium, and long-range ballistic missiles.
  • Potential use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons adds to its asymmetric threat.

• South Korea:

  • Has qualitative advantages in military technology, including surface-to-air missiles and precision strike systems.
  • Relies on U.S. military support and is developing its own missile and drone capabilities.
  • Vulnerable to precision strikes due to its highly developed and concentrated infrastructure.

Asymmetric Warfare

• North Korea has a long history of asymmetric threats, including tunnels across the DMZ and a missile-rocket-artillery threat near the border.
• These threats are less effective against South Korea's modern and dispersed infrastructure.
• The use of chemical and biological weapons could have devastating effects, though their lethality and deployment are uncertain.

Nuclear and Missile Threats

• North Korea has developed nuclear capabilities and can threaten U.S. bases, Japan, and other regional targets.
• South Korea's nuclear option is a potential countermeasure, though it is not currently pursued.
• The U.S. offers extended deterrence, but its effectiveness is uncertain.

Key Issues and Risks

• Regional Impact: North Korea's potential conflict could affect 40%+ of U.S. imports.
• Escalation Risks: Potential for escalation to conventional war, nuclear conflict, or use of WMDs.
• Vulnerability to Precision Strikes: South Korea's dense urban areas and modern infrastructure make it highly vulnerable to targeted attacks.
• Geopolitical Factors: The role of China, Japan, and Russia in potential conflicts remains uncertain.
• Civilian Impact: The costs and risks of war to Korean civilians are significant, especially in South Korea due to its urbanization and economic dependence.

Geography and Natural Resources

• The Korean Peninsula is highly mountainous, limiting arable land and military mobility.
• North Korea has limited arable land (17%-22%) and relies on coal and limited natural resources.
• South Korea is effectively an island with no land ties to Asia and is more vulnerable to maritime threats.
• North Korea has common borders with China and Russia, which may influence its strategic posture.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while North Korea has significant numerical and conventional military strengths, South Korea's modern infrastructure, economic resilience, and qualitative military advantages provide a strong counterbalance. However, the potential for asymmetric warfare, nuclear threats, and the vulnerability of South Korea's urban centers remain critical concerns. The balance between the two Koreas is thus a complex interplay of strengths and weaknesses, with the outcome of any conflict hinging on numerous variables including surprise, international support, and the evolution of military and technological capabilities.