EMBER-全球电力评论2021（英文）-2021.3-26页_3mb

Global Electricity Review 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global Electricity Review 2021 by Ember provides an analysis of global electricity trends in 2020, focusing on the decline of coal and the growth of wind and solar. It highlights the role of the pandemic in temporarily slowing electricity demand and the challenges in achieving climate goals.

Main Findings

1. Pandemic Paused Electricity Demand Growth

• Global electricity demand fell by 0.1% in 2020, the first decline since 2009.
• By December 2020, demand had already surpassed 2019 levels in several major economies: India (+5%), EU (+2%), Japan (+3%), South Korea (+2%), Turkey (+3%), and US (+2%).
• This pause in demand growth allowed wind and solar to drive a record 4% drop in coal generation.

2. Wind and Solar Showed Resilient Growth

• Wind and solar generation increased by 15% (+314 TWh) in 2020.
• They supplied 9.4% of global electricity, doubling from 4.6% in 2015.
• Several G20 countries now generate around 10% of their electricity from wind and solar:
  • India (9%)
  • China (9.5%)
  • Japan (10%)
  • Brazil (11.6%)
  • US (12%)
  • Turkey (12%)
• Germany and UK lead the G20 in wind and solar adoption, with shares of 33% and 29%, respectively.

3. Coal Generation Fell Globally, But Only Slightly

• Global coal generation fell by 4% (-346 TWh), the largest drop in history.
• However, the decline was not enough to offset overall fossil fuel generation, which increased by 11% since 2015.
• CO2 emissions from the power sector were 2% higher in 2020 than in 2015.

4. China as the Only G20 Country with Coal Growth

• China was the only G20 country to see a rise in coal generation (+1.7%).
• Coal generation in China increased by 19% over five years, driven by 33% growth in electricity demand.
• China accounts for 53% of global coal generation, up from 44% in 2015.

5. Asia's Electricity Demand Growth Poses a Major Challenge

• Asia accounts for 77% of global coal generation, with China alone responsible for 53%.
• Fossil-free electricity met only 54% of China's electricity demand growth, 57% in India, and 37% in Indonesia.
• Asia's electricity demand is expected to continue rising, which could lead to a rebound in coal unless clean energy expands rapidly.

6. OECD Countries are Phasing Out Coal

• Coal generation in the EU-27 fell by 48% since 2015.
• The US saw a 43% drop in coal generation.
• These declines were offset by increases in China, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.

7. Global Fossil Fuel Use Remains High

• 61% of global electricity still came from fossil fuels in 2020.
• Gas contributed 23%, while oil contributed 4%.
• Five G20 countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels:
  • Saudi Arabia (100%)
  • South Africa (89%)
  • Indonesia (83%)
  • Mexico (75%)
  • Australia (75%)

Key Information

• Wind and solar are the main drivers of the decline in coal, but their growth has not yet accelerated enough to meet climate targets.
• Coal generation must fall by 80% by 2030 to avoid dangerous warming above 1.5°C, according to the IPCC and IEA.
• China's electricity demand grew by 33% since 2015, outpacing the growth of clean energy sources.
• Nuclear and hydro saw smaller changes, with nuclear increasing by 5% and hydro by 13%.
• Gas generation increased by 11% globally, with the US accounting for half of that rise.

Conclusion

The global electricity transition is not on track to meet climate targets. While wind and solar have made significant progress, their growth is not sufficient to replace coal and other fossil fuels quickly enough. The pandemic temporarily slowed demand, but the resurgence in electricity demand will likely lead to a rebound in coal unless clean energy expansion accelerates. Asia, particularly China, remains a major challenge in the global effort to phase out coal.

Methodology

• Data Sources: Ember uses data from various national and international sources, including the EIA, BP, and WRI.
• Country Coverage: 68 countries (representing 90% of global electricity generation) have full-year data to 2020, while others have data up to 2019.
• G20 Analysis: Each G20 country has an in-depth analysis, with China, India, Japan, Brazil, US, and Turkey showing significant clean energy growth.
• Estimation Methods: 2020 data is estimated using year-on-year changes from national sources, while thermal disaggregation is based on BP and WRI data.

Disclaimer

The report is published under a Creative Commons ShareAlike License (CC BY-SA 4.0), and the data is provided as is. If errors are found, they can be reported to info@ember-climate.org.

Definitions

• Renewables are classified according to the IPCC, including bioenergy.
• Fossil fuels are split into coal, gas, and oil.
• Nuclear is considered fossil-free.
• Hydro, bioenergy, and other renewables are grouped together, with hydro excluding pumped hydro where possible.

Historical Data

• Data from 2000–2019 is primarily sourced from the EIA.
• China, India, EU-27, and US are exceptions, with their data sourced separately.
• For some countries, 2019 data was used to estimate 2020 values when not available.

World Estimate

• World data for 2020 is estimated by summing 2019 and 2020 data from 90% of global electricity generation.
• Percentage changes from 2019 to 2020 are applied to 2019 global data to estimate 2020 generation.