20250310-招银国际-Domestic_excavator_sales_+99__YoY_in_Feb_a_surprise_4页_688kb

Capital Goods Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the China Capital Goods sector, with a focus on excavator and wheel loader sales in February 2025. It highlights the surprising growth in domestic sales and the positive outlook for the industry, supported by recent macroeconomic policies and the recovery of project-level demand. The report also includes sales projections and market performance for various construction machinery types, along with ratings and disclaimer information for investors.

Key Sales Data

Excavator Sales

• Domestic sales in February 2025 surged +99% YoY to 11,640 units.
• Export sales increased +13% YoY to 7,630 units.
• Total sales for excavators in February 2025 reached 19,270 units, up +53% YoY.
• In 2M25 (CNY effect eliminated), excavator sales grew +27% YoY, with domestic sales at +51% and export sales at +7%.

Wheel Loader Sales

• Domestic sales in February 2025 rose +63% YoY to 4,505 units.
• Export sales increased +13% YoY to 4,225 units.
• Total sales for wheel loaders in February 2025 reached 8,730 units, up +34% YoY.
• In 2M25, wheel loader sales grew +17% YoY, with domestic sales at +26% and export sales at +8%.

Electric Wheel Loaders

• Electric wheel loader sales reached 1,300 units in February 2025, up +3.4x YoY.
• They accounted for 15.2% of total wheel loader sales, up from 4.6% in February 2024.

Downstream Applications

Market Outlook and Recommendations

• The upcycle of replacement demand is expected to boost earth-moving machinery sales this year.
• The traditional peak season in March is likely to further enhance sector sentiment.
• BUY recommendation is reiterated for:
  • SANY Heavy (600031 CH)
  • Jiangsu Hengli (601100 CH)
  • Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH)

Sales Projections

• CMBIGM excavator sales projection for the year shows a positive trend, with excavator sales expected to continue growing.
• The projection breakdown by region indicates varying levels of growth across different markets.

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views.
• No part of the analyst’s compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed in the report.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclaimer and Risk Information

• The report contains general information and not investment advice.
• There are risks involved in trading any securities, and actual events may differ from the report's projections.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• CMBIGM does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided.
• The report is intended for specific recipients and not for public distribution.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
• CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S., and the report is intended for major U.S. institutional investors only.
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to regulatory requirements.

Conclusion

The China Capital Goods sector, particularly excavators and wheel loaders, has shown surprising growth in February 2025, driven by strong demand and supportive policies. The upcycle of replacement demand is expected to sustain growth throughout the year, with March marking the traditional peak season. The BUY recommendation is reiterated for key players in the sector, indicating a positive outlook for investors.