上海美国商会-2019年中国商业报告（中英）-2019.9-64页_1__1mb

2019 China Business Report Summary

Core Content

The 2019 China Business Report by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham Shanghai) provides an overview of the business climate for U.S. companies operating in China. It highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by members, particularly in light of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the economic slowdown in China.

Main Points

• AmCham Shanghai is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that supports U.S. businesses in China through resources, policy advocacy, and relationship-building.
• The 2019 China Business Climate Survey was conducted between June 27 and July 25, 2019, and included 333 participants.
• The report reflects the views of U.S. companies on market access, intellectual property rights (IPR), regulatory environment, and investment trends.

Key Findings

Business Performance in 2018

• Profitability remained stable at 76.8%, similar to previous years.
  • Logistics companies reported 100% profitability.
  • Chemicals firms had 93.3% profitability.
  • Pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and life sciences firms had 90.0% profitability.
  • Real estate, engineering, and construction services had only 36.4% profitability.
• Revenue growth and operating margins declined in 2018, with 14.2% of companies experiencing negative revenue growth.
• Automotive companies had the lowest profitability, with 69.6% profitable in 2018.

Business Outlook for 2019

• Revenue projections for 2019 were weaker than in 2018.
  • 50.5% of companies expected revenue to exceed 2018 levels.
  • 27.1% anticipated lower revenues.
• Five-year optimism dropped to 61.4%, the lowest in many years.
• Pessimism increased by 14.0 percentage points, from 7.1% to 21.1%.
• The food and agriculture industry was the most optimistic, with 76.9% of respondents either optimistic or slightly optimistic.
• Pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and life sciences firms were also optimistic, with 72.2% expressing positive outlooks.

Investment Trends

• Investment in China slowed in 2019.
  • 47.1% of companies expected to increase investment.
  • 22.5% of manufacturers planned to decrease investment.
• 26.5% of respondents had redirected investments from China to other locations.
  • Technology hardware, software, and services firms had the highest redirection rate at 40.0%.
  • Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent were the top two destinations for redirected investment.
• U.S. policies to attract manufacturing back to the U.S. have not yet yielded significant results.

Challenges

• Market access barriers and lack of IPR protection and enforcement were the most significant challenges.
  • 57.8% of members cited economic slowdown as their biggest challenge.
  • 52.7% of members viewed U.S.-China tensions as a major concern.
• Operational challenges improved, with corruption and fraud and inefficient bureaucracy declining.
  • 56.5% of respondents still viewed corruption and fraud as a hindrance.
  • 48.6% still saw inefficient bureaucracy as a challenge.
• Rising costs and domestic competition remained the top two challenges for three consecutive years.
• IPR concerns limited R&D investment, with 43.9% of manufacturers citing this as a reason.

Opportunities

• Increasing consumption and government policy changes in healthcare and drug approvals were seen as opportunities.
  • 59.2% of respondents identified increasing consumption as the top factor benefiting their industry.
• China's consumer market and improvements in the regulatory environment were still viewed as attractive for investment.

Policy and Trade Environment

• Tariffs and trade tensions continued to weigh on business sentiment.
  • 53.4% of companies reported delaying or reducing investment due to trade tensions.
  • Only 4.5% of companies increased investment in response to trade tensions.
• Dialogue and reciprocity were seen as the most effective tools to resolve trade issues.
  • 28.9% of members believed expanded government dialogues would help.
  • 23.2% of members preferred investment and market access reciprocity.

Conclusion

• The business environment in China has improved in some areas, but market access and IPR protection remain critical issues.
• U.S. companies continue to see opportunities in China's market but are increasingly concerned about trade policy and economic stability.
• Without a trade agreement, the outlook for 2020 may be even more challenging.

Key Industry Insights

• Pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and life sciences firms benefited from government policy changes.
• Manufacturing and retail sectors faced greater challenges and lower optimism.
• Automotive and non-consumer electronics industries saw the most significant declines in investment and optimism.

Summary of Investment and Strategy

• Functional investment trends showed a decline in most areas.
  • Sales, marketing, and business development and staff development and training were the top areas for investment.
• Strategies in China included:
  • Producing or sourcing goods/services in China for the China market.
  • Producing or sourcing for the U.S. market.
  • Producing or sourcing for other markets.
  • Importing goods into China.

Regulatory Hindrances

• Top regulatory hindrances:
  • Lack of IPR protection and enforcement (56.4%).
  • Difficulty obtaining required licenses (56.7%).
  • Procurement practices favoring domestic competitors (51.3%).
• Improvements were noted in:
  • Tax administration.
  • Impartial civil and judicial remedies for business disputes.

Final Thoughts

The 2019 China Business Report underscores the complex and uncertain environment for U.S. businesses in China. While the regulatory environment has improved, market access and IPR protection remain key concerns. The trade war and tariffs have dampened investment and confidence, with many companies looking to diversify their operations outside of China.