2013年-世界发展银行全球_Fish_to_2030___Prospects_for_Fisheries_and_Aquaculture_102页_6mb

FISH TO 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture

Core Content

This report, Fish to 2030, presents projections for global fish supply and demand up to 2030 using the IFPRI's IMPACT model. It highlights the role of fisheries and aquaculture in meeting global food and nutritional needs, especially in the context of a growing population and increasing demand for seafood.

Main Findings

• Global Population and Food Security: The world population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, necessitating increased food production and reduced waste to meet nutritional needs. Fish is a critical source of animal protein and essential micronutrients.
• Aquaculture Growth: Aquaculture is projected to continue expanding and will supply over 60% of fish destined for direct human consumption by 2030. However, its growth rate is expected to slow down from the peak of 11% in the 1980s.
• Capture Fisheries: Capture fisheries are expected to maintain stable production levels around 93 million tons from 2010 to 2030.
• Regional Trends: China will dominate global fish production and consumption, accounting for 37% of total fish production and 38% of global food fish consumption. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience a decline in per capita fish consumption but will see a significant increase in total demand due to rapid population growth.
• Fish Trade: Fish is highly traded internationally, with 38% of global production exported in 2010. Developing countries are increasingly integrated into the global seafood trade, with 67% of their fishery exports going to developed countries.
• Species-Specific Projections: Tilapia, carp, and Pangasius/catfish are expected to see the fastest supply growth, with tilapia production almost doubling from 4.3 million to 7.3 million tons between 2010 and 2030.

Key Scenarios

• Scenario 1: Faster Aquaculture Growth – Aquaculture production is expected to grow significantly, increasing the supply of seafood and potentially lowering prices.
• Scenario 2: Expanded Use of Fish Processing Waste – Utilizing fish processing waste in fishmeal and fish oil production could increase fishmeal output and reduce pressure on wild fish stocks.
• Scenario 3: Major Disease Outbreak in Shrimp Aquaculture – A disease outbreak in shrimp aquaculture in Asia and America could lead to a substantial decline in shrimp production.
• Scenario 4: Accelerated Consumer Preference Shift in China – Changes in consumer preferences in China could significantly increase seafood consumption and alter global trade patterns.
• Scenario 5: Improved Capture Fisheries Productivity – Enhanced productivity in capture fisheries could lead to increased production and reduced pressure on wild fish stocks.
• Scenario 6: Climate Change Impacts – Climate change is expected to affect capture fisheries productivity, with potential shifts in production and consumption patterns.

Model and Data

• The IMPACT model is used to simulate global fish supply and demand, incorporating data from the FAO and other sources.
• The model covers 115 regions and includes both fish and fish products in its analysis.
• Data Sources: The model uses data from the FAO's FishStat and FBS, along with other economic and demographic indicators.
• Projections: The baseline scenario projects a global fish supply increase from 154 million tons in 2011 to 186 million tons in 2030, with aquaculture and capture fisheries contributing equally by 2030.

Implications

• Sustainability: Sustainable management of fisheries and aquaculture is crucial to ensure long-term food security and environmental protection.
• Economic Development: Developing countries can benefit from investing in improved fisheries management and environmentally sustainable aquaculture to meet global demand and improve livelihoods.
• Policy Research: The report identifies key policy research questions and suggests that better understanding of global fish market dynamics can inform more effective management strategies.

Conclusion

Fish to 2030 underscores the importance of fisheries and aquaculture in global food security and highlights the need for sustainable practices and policy interventions to meet future demand. The report provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the global fish market and offers insights into how different scenarios could impact supply, consumption, and trade.