世界银行-第七次加纳经济更新：价格飙升-消除通货膨胀对贫困和粮食安全的影响（英）-2023.6-88页_4mb

7th Ghana Economic Update: Price Surge
Executive Summary

• Ghana's economy faced a severe crisis in 2022 due to currency depreciation, high inflation, and fiscal vulnerabilities.
  GDP growth slowed to 3.1% in 2022, the lowest since 2020.
• Inflation reached a 20-year high of 54.1% in 2022, significantly eroding purchasing power and pushing over 850,000 Ghanaians into poverty.
• Food prices increased by 34% in 2022, exacerbating food insecurity; the number of food-insecure households rose to 823,000.
• Fiscal consolidation efforts are underway, including revenue reforms, expenditure control, and debt restructuring.
• Challenges include limited access to international capital markets, financing constraints, and the risk of stagflation.
• Policy priorities focus on sustainable revenue collection, expenditure control, energy sector reforms, and climate adaptation to build resilience.

Part I: Global Economic Context, Recent Developments, and Outlook

• Global Context: Ghana's economic growth slowed due to global recessions and regional food insecurity.
  • Inflation and fiscal stress in EMDEs, including a widening debt crisis.
• Recent Developments:
  • Fiscal deficit (commitment basis) reached 11% of GDP in 2022, breaching debt sustainability thresholds.
  • Monetary policy tightened, with the policy rate reaching 28% to curb inflation.
• Macroeconomic Outlook:
  • GDP growth projected at 1.5% in 2023, with gradual recovery expected by 2025.
  • High inflation and fiscal consolidation risks slowing economic activity.

Part II: Special Focus: Impact of Inflation on Poverty and Food Security

• High inflation disproportionately affected the poor, who spend over 50% of their budget on food.
• Poverty Impact:
  • Rising prices pushed 850,000 Ghanaians into poverty; real wages for minimum wage workers fell by 43%.
• Food Security Impact:
  • Food prices surged by 34% in 2022, increasing food insecurity from 560,000 to 823,000 people.
  • Supply chain disruptions, currency depreciation, and input costs (e.g., fertilizer) further strained food access.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Strengthen tax administration, enforce social protection programs (e.g., LEAP), and invest in climate-smart agriculture.
  • Promote private investment, improve market access for farmers, and enhance infrastructure in rural areas.

Key Recommendations

• Immediate measures: Social protection programs (cash transfers, food vouchers) to support vulnerable households.
• Structural reforms: Streamline tax systems, improve PFM, and address energy sector subsidies.
• Medium-term focus: Climate-resilient agriculture, debt restructuring, and inclusive growth policies.