深度-联合国工发组织-世界制造业：疫情发生一年后（英文）-2021.6-19页_4mb

Summary of World Manufacturing Production in Quarter I 2021

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive overview of global manufacturing production trends in the first quarter of 2021, highlighting the recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and other pre-existing economic challenges. It also includes projections for 2021 and revised data for the fourth quarter of 2020.

Main Points

• Global Recovery: After a significant drop in 2020 (-6.8% compared to the same quarter of the previous year), global manufacturing output grew by 12.0% in Quarter I 2021, marking a clear recovery path.
• Industrialized Economies:
  • Industrialized economies saw a 1.5% growth in manufacturing output in Quarter I 2021.
  • The United States, Europe, and Asia & Pacific regions experienced varying levels of recovery.
  • The United States is projected to lead the recovery in 2021 with an estimated 10.4% growth in manufacturing value added (MVA), compared to a 10.4% decline in 2020.
  • Europe's MVA is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2021, rebounding from an 11.6% decline in 2020.
• China's Performance:
  • China, the world's largest manufacturer, showed a strong recovery with a 38.2% year-over-year increase in manufacturing output in Quarter I 2021.
  • China's MVA is projected to grow by 9.0% in 2021, up from a -0.7% decline in 2020.
• Developing and Emerging Industrial Economies (excluding China):
  • Manufacturing output increased by 3.2% in Quarter I 2021, compared to a 6.2% decline in 2020.
  • Asia and the Pacific (Dev. and EIE) saw a 2.5% growth in Quarter I 2021, following a 25.5% drop in the second quarter of 2020.
  • Latin America reported a 5.4% growth in Quarter I 2021, though growth trends have been sluggish since 2018.
  • African countries showed a 0.8% growth in Quarter I 2021, with notable increases in some nations like Senegal, Rwanda, and Nigeria.
• Industry-Specific Trends:
  • Medium high- and high-technology industries, such as computer and electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, showed strong recovery with growth rates exceeding 10% in Quarter I 2021.
  • Low-technology industries, including textiles, wearing apparel, and coke and refined petroleum products, experienced lower growth or even declines.
• Challenges and Uncertainties:
  • The pandemic had severe impacts on both demand and supply, especially in the early quarters of 2020.
  • Trade tensions and protectionism also contributed to the slowdown in manufacturing before the pandemic.
  • The sustainability of recovery in some regions remains uncertain, particularly in Latin America and parts of Europe.
  • Government support measures have been crucial in stabilizing economies and manufacturing sectors, but their long-term effects are yet to be fully assessed.

Key Information

• Quarter I 2021 Growth:
  • Global manufacturing output grew by 12.0% compared to the same quarter of 2020.
  • Industrialized economies recorded a 1.5% growth, while developing and emerging economies (excluding China) saw a 3.2% increase.
• China's Recovery:
  • China's manufacturing output increased by 38.2% year-over-year in Quarter I 2021.
  • China's MVA is projected to grow by 9.0% in 2021, up from a -0.7% decline in 2020.
• Regional Variability:
  • Asia and the Pacific (Dev. and EIE) reported a 2.5% growth in Quarter I 2021.
  • Latin America recorded a 5.4% increase, with some countries showing higher growth.
  • Africa saw a 0.8% growth, though some countries like Senegal, Rwanda, Nigeria, and Tunisia showed significant increases.
• Industry Performance:
  • High-technology industries (e.g., computer and electronics, pharmaceuticals) experienced the fastest growth.
  • Low-technology industries faced slower recovery or declines.
• Future Projections:
  • The global manufacturing value added is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2021.
  • Industrialized economies are projected to grow by 7.2%, while developing and emerging economies (excluding China) are expected to grow by 5.9%.
  • Least developed countries are projected to experience a slowdown in MVA growth, from 8.7% in 2019 to 0.6% in 2021.

Conclusion

The first quarter of 2021 marks a significant recovery in global manufacturing production, driven by the easing of lockdown measures and the progress of vaccination campaigns. While China and some developing economies showed strong rebounds, industrialized economies continued to face challenges, particularly due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and pre-existing trade issues. The recovery trajectory varies across regions and industries, with high-technology sectors leading the way. The document underscores the importance of government support and the need for a fair global vaccine distribution to ensure a sustainable recovery.