战略与国际研究中心-Islam,-Islamism,-and-Politics-in-Eurasia-Report-IIPER-–-No-63,-4-December-2012_23页_522kb

Summary of IIPER No. 63, 30 November 2012

Core Content

This report examines the growing influence of Islamist groups in Eurasia, focusing on the Caucasus Emirate (CE), Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. It highlights the shift from localized separatist movements to global jihadist networks, the increasing threat of terrorism in Central Asia, and the responses by governments and security agencies.

Main Points

The Caucasus Emirate Goes Global

• The CE, once a nationalist separatist group, has become a jihadist organization aligned with Al-Qaeda (AQ) and its affiliates.
• The CE's ideology and tactics have evolved to align with AQ's radical Salafi jihadist framework.
• The CE has expanded its reach beyond the North Caucasus, engaging in global operations and recruiting members from various countries.
• The CE has been linked to international terrorist plots in Europe and the Middle East, including the 2011 Mumbai-style attack in Baku and the 2012 plot to attack the London Olympics.
• The CE's network in Dagestan (DV) is a key player in its operations, with a significant share of its attacks.

Kazakhstan: Rising Threat and Government Response

• Kazakhstan has become a growing concern for the international community due to increased Salafist militant activity.
• The Kazakh government has taken steps to combat religious extremism, including banning the anti-Islam film "Innocence of Muslims" and shutting down a third of its registered religious organizations.
• Several individuals have been convicted of terrorism-related charges, including those linked to Jund al-Khilafah (JaK), a group with ties to the CE and AQ.
• The CE has had long-standing connections with JaK, which has carried out attacks in France, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan.
• The government has emphasized the use of non-lethal methods to deal with terrorists, reserving lethal force only as a last resort.

Other Central Asian Countries

• Kyrgyzstan: An imam affiliated with Hizb ut-Tahrir, an international pan-Islamic group, was arrested for promoting extremist ideas.
• Turkmenistan: Seven Kazakhs were detained for trespassing into Turkmen territory, suggesting cross-border security concerns.
• Uzbekistan: In Ferghana Province, an anti-extremism campaign targeted schoolchildren with awareness speeches about radical religious movements and their dangers.

Key Information

Globalization of the Caucasus Emirate

• The CE has moved from a regional separatist movement to a global jihadist network.
• It has been linked to plots involving European countries and the Middle East, including the 2012 Spanish and French foiled AQ plot.
• The CE's DV network has been active in planning attacks in Azerbaijan and potentially targeting the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi.

Central Asia: A New Front in Global Jihad

• The withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan has raised concerns about the return of militants to Central Asia.
• Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have all seen increased extremist activity and government crackdowns.
• The Kazakh government has called for international cooperation to combat terrorism, especially with Russia and Pakistan.

Legal and Security Measures

• The Kazakh government has banned the anti-Islam film and shut down religious groups deemed extremist.
• Several individuals have been arrested and sentenced for terrorism-related activities, including those involved in planning attacks on government and civilian targets.
• The government has emphasized the importance of information sharing and collaboration with international bodies to counter terrorism.

Role of AQ and Its Affiliates

• AQ and its affiliated groups have played a significant role in shaping the ideology and operations of the CE and other jihadist organizations.
• The CE maintains close ties with AQ-affiliated groups in Pakistan, particularly the UVKBK and the RSMB.
• The death of JaK's emir, Moezeddine Garsallaoui, in a drone strike in Pakistan is seen as a significant loss for the global jihadist network.

Conclusion

The report underscores the transformation of the CE from a regional movement to a global jihadist entity, with implications for regional and international security. It calls for increased vigilance and cooperation to prevent the spread of extremism and terrorism in Central Asia and beyond.