战略与国际研究中心-Islam-Islamism-and-Politics-in-Eurasia-Report-IIPER_10页_367kb

Summary of the Islam, Islamism and Politics in Eurasia Report No. 44, 12 August 2011

Core Content

This report from the Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program (MonTREP) focuses on two main topics:

1. The reunification of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (ChRI) breakaway group, the Nokchicho Vilaiyat (NV), with the Caucasus Emirate (CE) and the Chechen Amirs who had previously split from CE amir Dokku 'Abu Usman' Umarov.
2. The CE-affiliated attack statistics for the first six months of 2011, including the number of attacks and casualties.

Main Points on the Reunification

• In late July 2011, the Nokchicho Vilaiyat (NV), which had split from the Caucasus Emirate (CE) in August 2010, rejoined the CE under Umarov's leadership.
• The reunification was announced through videos posted on CE websites and YouTube, which included Shariah court sessions and bayat renewals.
• The split was triggered by Umarov's resignation and retraction, which led Hussein Gakaev, Aslambek Vadalov, and Tarkhan Gaziev to renounce their bayats to Umarov.
• Umarov reinstated the four defectors and reorganized the NV into two military sectors: Eastern and Western.
• Khamzat Aslan Byutukaev, the amir of the Riyadh-Salikhin Martyrs' Brigade, was appointed as the Western Theatre amir.
• The split was not due to a revival of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria project, as previously claimed by some analysts, but rather due to dissatisfaction with Umarov's leadership, resource allocation issues, and inter-ethnic competition.
• The reunification is seen as a political success for Umarov, who appears healthy, motivated, and confident.
• The death of Muhammad, an Arab Jordanian national and CE emissary, may have contributed to the resolution of the split.
• The breakaway group (INV) likely suffered from limited resources and recruitments after splitting from the CE.
• The reunification is expected to lead to an increase in jihadi operations in late summer and autumn.

Key Attack Statistics from January to June 2011

• The Caucasus Emirate (CE) claims responsibility for 384 attacks in the first six months of 2011, including 1 in Moscow.
• Dagestan Vilaiyat (DV) remains the most active region, accounting for 220 attacks (60% of total CE attacks) and 129 killed.
• Nokchicho Vilaiyat (NV) and Galgaiche Vilaiyat (GV) saw a significant increase in activity in June, with combined 34 operations.
• OVKBK (United Vilaiyat of Kabardiya, Balkariya and Karachay-Cherkessiya) remains the second most active front, with 74 attacks in June.
• The Domodedovo Airport suicide bombing on 24 January 2011, which involved 5 individuals, was not included in the CE's reported casualties in the North Caucasus.
• CE data is accurate but potentially inflated, as it is based on internal sources and may not reflect the full scope of operations.

Key Figures and Organizations

• Dokku 'Abu Usman' Umarov: Amir of the Caucasus Emirate, reasserted control after the reunification.
• Hussein Gakaev: Former NV amir, now rejoining the CE.
• Aslambek Vadalov: Former NV naib, also rejoining the CE.
• Tarkhan Gaziev: Another major Chechen amir who initially split but was not present in the reunification videos.
• Khamzat Aslan Byutukaev: Amir of the Riyadh-Salikhin Martyrs' Brigade, appointed as Western Theatre amir.
• Magomedali Vagabov: CE qadi and Dagestan Vilaiyat amir, involved in the Shariah court session.
• UmmaNews.com: CE-affiliated website that regularly reports on attacks and casualties.
• Kavkaz tsentr: Another source that tracks CE-related activities and provides additional data.

Conclusion

The reunification of the Nokchicho Vilaiyat and Chechen amirs with the Caucasus Emirate signals a return to unity and reinforcement of Umarov's leadership. This event contradicts earlier interpretations that suggested a revival of Chechen separatism, instead pointing to internal conflicts and ideological alignment.

The attack statistics highlight the increasing dominance of Dagestan within the CE, with 384 attacks and 260 killed in the first half of 2011. This suggests a shift in the structure and focus of the CE's operations, with Dagestan becoming the primary operational hub.

The report underscores the complex dynamics within the jihadi movement in the North Caucasus, including leadership disputes, resource competition, and ethnic tensions. It also highlights the importance of external factors such as foreign designation and rewards in influencing the behavior of jihadi groups.