20131007-穆迪服务-Financial_Markets_Shrug_Off_US_Government_Shutdown,_So_Far_17页_1mb

Moody's Market Signals Sovereign Risk Report Summary

Core Content

This report from Moody's Capital Markets Research (CMR) analyzes market reactions to recent political developments in the United States, particularly the government shutdown and the looming debt ceiling issue. It highlights how financial markets are responding to these events and compares the current situation with historical instances of similar political standoffs.

Main Points

• Market Reaction to US Government Shutdown:
  The market's reaction to the US government shutdown has been relatively subdued, with five-year CDS spreads rising from 18 bp to 36 bp by October 4. The five-year cumulative CDS-implied EDF (Expected Default Frequency) for US government debt increased from 0.06% to 0.18% over the same period.

  • These levels are less severe than those seen during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, indicating that investors are not reacting as strongly as expected.
  • The report suggests that the market is not yet reacting to the full implications of the debt ceiling issue.

• US Treasury Yields:
  US Treasury yields have decreased since mid-September, which is contrary to expectations given the political turmoil.

  • This decline suggests a lack of immediate concern about the debt ceiling issue among investors.

• Corporate Bond Spreads:
  Average credit spreads on speculative grade debt have increased slightly, but this is largely due to the decline in Treasury yields.

  • The spread between Aaa- and Baa-rated corporate bonds has not widened, indicating that the market is not perceiving a significant increase in risk.

• Equity Market Performance:
  Major US equity indices have declined by 3% to 5% from their all-time highs set on September 18, but this is not yet considered a bear market (which typically requires a 10% decline).

Key Reasons for Investor Indifference

1. Familiarity with Past Crises:

   • The US has experienced similar political standoffs before, such as the 2011 debt ceiling crisis and the 1995-96 government shutdown.
   • Investors are aware that these situations have historically been resolved without severe economic consequences, leading to a more measured response.

2. Alternative Scenarios for Debt Ceiling Resolution:

   • Various alternative scenarios, such as prioritization of payments, minting a $1 trillion coin, and selling off US gold reserves, are being considered.
   • While some of these options are more realistic than others, they are not seen as credible enough to cause a significant market reaction.
   • The prospect of an actual default is likely to push policymakers toward a resolution, as it would have more severe implications.

3. Assumption of a Technical Default:

   • Most investors assume that any default would be short-lived and technical, rather than a full-scale default.
   • They expect a quick resolution, which would minimize the expected loss and prevent a major market downturn.

Asia-Pacific Overview

Europe Overview

Conclusion

The report indicates that while the US government shutdown has not caused a significant market reaction, the unresolved debt ceiling issue is a growing concern. Investors are not reacting as strongly as might be expected, possibly due to historical precedent, the availability of alternative resolution strategies, and the belief that any default would be short-lived. The financial markets remain relatively calm, with only minor changes in risk indicators, and the US equity indices have not yet reached bear market levels.