2009年-世界发展银行全球_Climate_Change_Impact_and_Adaptation_Study_for_Bangkok_Metropolitan_Region___Final_Report___Appendices_H-N_140页_17mb

Summary of the Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Bangkok Metropolitan Region

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of climate change on the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), including socio-economic, infrastructure, public health, and environmental aspects. It also outlines adaptation strategies and proposes measures to mitigate the effects of rising sea levels, storm surges, and land subsidence. The study integrates historical data, current conditions, and future projections to assess vulnerabilities and suggest solutions for sustainable development.

Main Sections and Key Findings

A. Socio-Economic Overview

• Population:
  • The BMR experienced population growth from 2003 to 2007, with detailed data on population distribution by district.
  • By 2050, the population is projected to increase significantly, including non-registered residents.
• Poverty:
  • Poverty levels in the BMR are assessed, with a focus on the poor population and the poverty line.
• Economy:
  • The GDP of the BMR and its districts was analyzed for 2006 and 2008.
  • Economic zones in the region are identified, highlighting their importance in development planning.

B. Buildings and Housing

• Urbanization:
  • Historical and modern-day growth of urban areas in the BMR is documented.
  • Topography and land use planning are key factors in urban development.
• Housing Situation:
  • The current housing situation includes condensed communities and the distribution of households.
  • Urban built-up areas are identified, emphasizing the need for spatial planning.

C. Transportation

• Current Infrastructure:
  • Road, rail, and waterway systems are detailed, including passenger data for express boats and ferry services.
• Master Plan:
  • The transportation master plan outlines expressway and rapid transit development.
  • Urgent road improvement projects and public transport initiatives are highlighted.
  • Proposed rail projects, such as the Red Line Phase 1, are included.

D. Water Supply and Sanitation

• Water Supply:
  • Present water supply systems and demand projections are analyzed.
  • The Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA) and Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) are key actors.
• Wastewater Treatment:
  • Current and projected wastewater generation is assessed.
  • Decentralized and centralized treatment systems are outlined.
• Solid Waste Management:
  • Present practices and future waste generation projections are detailed.
  • Transfer stations and waste management systems are described.

E. Public Health

• Health Impacts:
  • The study outlines pathways of health impacts from climate change.
  • Trends in infectious disease incidence are projected, showing an increase due to flooding and environmental changes.

F. Energy

• Energy Consumption:
  • Data on energy use in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn for 2006 is provided.
  • Fuel substitution patterns are projected for 2007–2021.
• Development Plans:
  • Strengthening energy transmission and development projects by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) are outlined.
• Future Projections:
  • Energy consumption is projected for 2021 and 2050.
  • Future energy infrastructure is assessed based on demand and climate risks.

G. Flood Management

• Historical Context:
  • Major flood events in Bangkok are documented, with satellite imagery and historical data used to understand flood patterns.
• Current Systems:
  • Flood control measures from the northern region and within Bangkok are described.
• Master Plan:
  • The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) flood protection budget is detailed.
• Future Plans (2050):
  • Flood protection strategies and infrastructure improvements are outlined, including dike elevations and pumping capacities.

H. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

• Sea Level Rise:
  • Global sea level rise over the 20th century was approximately 1–2 mm/year.
  • Projections using MAGICC model indicate 3–16 cm by 2030, 7–50 cm by 2070, and 9–87 cm by 2100.
  • Six SRES scenarios are analyzed, with mean sea level rise values provided.
• Storm Surge:
  • Historical storm events, such as Typhoon Linda, are studied.
  • Buoy locations and wave patterns are analyzed to understand storm surge impacts.
  • Vulnerability maps of coastal deltas (including Thailand) are presented.

I. Land Subsidence

• Causes and Measures:
  • Land subsidence is linked to groundwater extraction and sediment starvation.
  • Legal, economic, and technical mitigation strategies are proposed.
• Current Situation:
  • Land subsidence in Bangkok and surrounding areas is mapped, showing significant areas of subsidence.
  • Correlation between subsidence and groundwater levels is analyzed.
• Future Projections:
  • Land subsidence rates are projected to accelerate, with estimates from 1979 to 2050.

J. Meteorology and Hydrology

• Climate and River Systems:
  • Climate patterns, including monsoons and tropical cyclones, are outlined.
  • River morphology and hydrological data are presented, with a focus on the Chao Phraya River Basin.
• Hydrological Analysis:
  • Precipitation, temperature, evaporation, and runoff are analyzed.
  • Water level and sea level data are provided for historical and projected periods.

K. Mathematical Model Development and Simulation

• Model Setup:
  • The study uses hydrological and hydrodynamic models to simulate flood behavior.
  • Model inputs and calibration parameters are detailed.
• Simulation Results:
  • Flood scenarios are simulated for different return periods.
  • Inundation areas and peak discharges are analyzed for the Chao Phraya and Pasak River basins.
  • The impact of land subsidence and storm surges on flood levels is modeled.

L. Impact Assessment

• Methodology:
  • The impact assessment considers population, buildings, transportation, water systems, energy, and public health.
• Results:
  • Population and infrastructure losses are projected under various climate scenarios.
  • Economic losses from flooding are estimated, including building damage and income loss.
  • Public health impacts, such as increased disease incidence, are highlighted.

M. Adaptation and Proposal

• Adaptation Options:
  • Structural measures include dike improvements, pumping systems, and coastal protection.
  • Non-structural measures focus on urban planning, early warning systems, and public education.
• Cost and Benefit Analysis:
  • Preliminary cost estimates and economic evaluations are provided for flood protection projects.
  • The cost-benefit analysis is conducted for different return periods.

N. Consultation with Stakeholders

• Technical Consultations:
  • Multiple consultations were conducted with government agencies and experts to ensure the study's accuracy and relevance.
• Final Stage Consultation:
  • Final recommendations and strategies were discussed with key stakeholders.

Key Information and Recommendations

• Sea Level Rise: Projected to increase significantly, with the most conservative scenario suggesting a rise of 40 cm by the end of the 21st century.
• Flood Risk: Expected to rise due to both sea level rise and increased rainfall, leading to more frequent and severe flooding.
• Land Subsidence: Accelerated by groundwater extraction and sediment reduction, posing a major threat to coastal and riverine areas.
• Infrastructure Vulnerability: Transportation, water supply, and energy systems are at risk, requiring adaptation strategies.
• Adaptation Measures: Dike construction, improved drainage systems, and urban planning are proposed as key structural adaptations.
• Economic Impact: Significant GDP loss is projected due to land loss and infrastructure damage.
• Public Health Concerns: Increased disease incidence and health risks due to flooding and environmental changes.
• Stakeholder Involvement: Active participation from various government agencies and international organizations was crucial in shaping the study and recommendations.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation strategies in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region to address the growing threats of climate change, including sea level rise, storm surges, and land subsidence. It highlights the importance of integrating socio-economic, infrastructural, and environmental factors into future planning. The proposed measures, both structural and non-structural, aim to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience in the face of climate-induced challenges.