2009年-世界发展银行全球_Climate_Change_Impact_and_Adaptation_Study_for_Bangkok_Metropolitan_Region___Final_Report_85页_12mb

报告摘要

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Bangkok Metropolitan Region

Core Content

This report presents the findings of a Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study conducted for the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), supported by the World Bank. The study was carried out by a multidisciplinary team from Panya Consultants Co., Ltd., in collaboration with various stakeholders and international organizations, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). The objective was to assess the impacts of climate change on the BMR and to propose adaptation strategies to mitigate these effects.

Main Objectives

To analyze the impacts of climate change on the hydrology, infrastructure, and socioeconomics of the BMR.
To evaluate the potential consequences of climate change scenarios on the region.
To identify and prioritize adaptation options based on effectiveness, cost, and feasibility.
To support informed decision-making for sustainable urban development.

Key Findings

Climate Change Projections

By 2050, the mean temperature in Bangkok is projected to increase by 1.9°C under the A1FI scenario and 1.2°C under the B1 scenario.
Basin mean precipitation is expected to rise by 3% under A1FI and 2% under B1.
Sea level rise in the Gulf of Thailand is estimated to be 0.29 meters under A1FI and 0.19 meters under B1.

Land Subsidence

Land subsidence is expected to vary between 0.05 to 0.30 meters across the BMR by 2050.
This subsidence will exacerbate the effects of storm surges, which are projected to reach a maximum of 0.61 meters at the Chao Phraya River mouth.

Flood-Prone Area Expansion

The flood-prone area in the BMR is expected to increase by 30% between 2008 and 2050.
An estimated 180 km² of Bangkok and Samut Prakarn may be inundated under the A1FI scenario in 2050.
7% of the area may remain flooded for over a month.
The western part of the BMR, including districts such as Bang Khun Thian and Phra Samut Chedi, is particularly vulnerable due to inadequate flood protection infrastructure.

Economic Impact

Economic damage from flooding is projected to increase four-fold by 2050.
Under current conditions, the economic damage from flooding is estimated at 35 billion baht, rising to 148 billion baht by 2050.
70% of the projected economic damage in 2050 will be attributed to land subsidence alone.

Infrastructure and Population Impact

Over 1 million people in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn are expected to be affected by flooding in 2050.
One in eight of the affected population resides in condensed housing areas, most of which are below the poverty line.
One-third of the affected population may experience more than 0.5 meters of inundation for at least one week.
Over 1 million buildings and housing units may be impacted by flooding, with 300,000 in the western areas.
Total partial damage to buildings and assets could exceed 110 billion baht, with half of the cost due to damage from new buildings affected by land subsidence.

Sectoral Impacts

Commercial and Industrial Sectors: Expected to lose 22 billion baht in value-added income due to business suspension during flooding.
Public Health: Vulnerable to increased flood-related diseases and health risks, especially in densely populated and low-lying areas.

Adaptation Options

Structural Measures

Proposed raising of existing dikes and increasing the pumping capacity of three western stations.
These measures are expected to significantly reduce flood risks and improve the resilience of the BMR.

Non-Structural Measures

Integration of climate change considerations into national and sector development planning.
Enhancing early warning systems, emergency evacuation procedures, and public awareness campaigns.

Economic Evaluation

Initial economic analysis suggests a favorable investment portfolio for proposed structural interventions.
The cost of these interventions should be evaluated in the context of the city's institutional framework and long-term development plans.

Institutional Mechanism

The National Board on Climate Change Policy and National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Committee play a key role in coordinating climate adaptation efforts.
A climate-proofing approach is recommended to ensure that development plans are resilient to future climate impacts.

Stakeholder Consultation

The study included consultations with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) and other relevant agencies.
Feedback was gathered through two technical meetings and a final consultation stage to refine the study's recommendations.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and integrated approach to climate change adaptation in the BMR.
It calls for urgent action, including the implementation of structural and non-structural adaptation measures, to ensure the sustainable development of Bangkok in the face of climate change.

Key Policy Priorities

Mainstreaming climate change in national and sectoral development planning.
Ensuring that financing mechanisms for infrastructure and development projects consider climate adaptation.
Strengthening institutional capacity and coordination for climate change response.
Enhancing early warning systems and disaster preparedness for the BMR.

Summary of Key Data

Area	Impact	Projection (2050)
Flood-Prone Area	Increase	180 km²
Affected Population	Increase	1 million
Economic Damage	Increase	148 billion baht
Building Damage	Increase	1 million units
Partial Damage Cost	Estimate	110 billion baht
Land Subsidence Contribution	Estimate	70% of total damage