20220818-招银国际-中通快递-SW-02057.HK-Record-high_market_share__Good_cost_control__Earnings_raised_on_better_margin_8页_1mb

报告摘要

Strong Financial Performance: ZTO's 2Q22 net profit increased by 40% YoY to RMB1.8bn, even after excluding a FX gain of RMB120mn. Adjusted net profit grew by 28% YoY to RMB1.69bn.
Revenue Growth: The company reported an 18% YoY revenue growth, driven by increased parcel volume and ASP (Average Selling Price).
Market Share Expansion: ZTO achieved a record-high market share of 23%, up 1.4ppt QoQ, due to higher parcel volume growth (+7.5% YoY) compared to other "Tongda" players (except STO).
Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin expanded by 2.6ppt YoY to 25.4%, indicating improved efficiency and pricing power.
Cost Control: Despite rising fuel costs, ZTO managed to keep unit cost growth at +6% YoY, with transportation costs increasing only 2% YoY and sorting hub costs rising 9% YoY.
Earnings Forecast: The analyst revised up 2022E earnings by 11% and 23-24E earnings by 4%, based on incremental improvement in unit gross margin.
Target Price: The target price was raised from HK$292 to HK$307, based on an unchanged target multiple of 35x, reflecting the company's market share gain and profitability recovery.
Valuation Metrics: The EV/EBITDA multiple has decreased from 20.1 to 8.8 over the forecast period, while the P/E ratio has also declined from 35.4 to 17.6, indicating potential undervaluation.
Share Performance: ZTO's stock has shown positive returns in the past 3 months and 6 months, with a 12-month price performance showing a notable increase.

Metric	FY20A	FY21A	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Revenue (RMB mn)	25,214	30,406	36,144	41,428	47,037
YoY growth (%)	14%	21%	19%	15%	14%
Core Net Profit (RMB mn)	4,312	4,755	6,362	7,653	8,930
Core EPS (RMB)	5.43	5.70	7.62	9.17	10.70
YoY growth (%)	-14.5%	5.0%	33.8%	20.3%	16.7%
Consensus EPS (RMB)	N/A	N/A	7.28	9.39	11.65
EV/EBITDA (x)	20.1	17.2	12.3	10.3	8.8
P/E (x)	35.4	31.7	24.7	20.6	17.6
P/B (x)	3.3	3.1	2.9	2.7	2.4
ROE (%)	9.9	9.7	12.4	13.5	14.2

BUY: Maintained, with a target price of HK$307 (previous TP: HK$292)
Price Performance:
- 1-mth: 2.1% (Absolute), 4.5% (Relative)
- 3-mth: 5.2% (Absolute), 5.8% (Relative)
- 6-mth: -11.3% (Absolute), 10.6% (Relative)

2022E Net Profit (RMB mn): Revised up to 6,362 from previous estimates
2023E Net Profit (RMB mn): 7,653
2024E Net Profit (RMB mn): 8,930
Unit Gross Margin (RMB): Expected to grow from 0.34 in 2022E to 0.39 in 2024E
Earnings Sensitivity: Positive to higher ASP and lower unit costs

Parcel Volume Growth: Outperformed the industry average since 4Q21
ASP: Increased by 10.5% YoY to RMB1.34/unit
Unit Cost: Increased by 6% YoY, but growth in transportation cost was only 2% YoY
Net Profit Margin: Improved from 17.2% to 18.9%
Gross Profit: Increased significantly, from RMB5,837 mn in FY20A to RMB13,122 mn in FY24E

The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect his or her personal views.
No part of the analyst's compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in the report.
The analyst and his/her associates have not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue and will not do so within 3 business days after the issue.

The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The information may be subject to change based on new data or market conditions.
CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on this report.
Investors are encouraged to consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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