20180517-穆迪服务-Low_Utilization_Rate_Favors_Profits_Growth_and_Fewer_Defaults_25页_773kb

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook provides insights into credit markets, economic indicators, and market trends across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The report highlights the relationship between labor market conditions, industrial capacity utilization, and their impact on corporate profits and default rates. It also includes forecasts and analysis of upcoming economic data releases.

Main Points

U.S. Market Outlook

• Low Unemployment Rate and Profitability: The U.S. unemployment rate of 3.9% in April suggests a tight labor market, which can limit profit growth due to increased labor costs and potential hiring freezes or layoffs.
• Industrial Capacity Utilization: The rate of industrial capacity utilization (77.5%) is relatively slack compared to its long-term median (79.9%), indicating that output expansion is not as strong as the unemployment rate suggests.
• Corporate Earnings and Defaults: Moody's forecasts that the U.S. high-yield default rate will drop from 3.7% in April 2018 to 1.5% in April 2019, suggesting improved credit quality.
• Bond Issuance Trends: Corporate bond issuance in 2017 was record high, with investment-grade (IG) bonds at $1.508 trillion and high-yield (HY) bonds at $453 billion. Moody's expects a decline in 2018, with IG issuance dropping to $1.415 trillion and HY issuance to $417 billion.
• Consumer Spending: U.S. retail sales in April rose slightly, with a 0.3% increase. Gasoline prices contributed to nominal spending at stations, but higher prices could reduce discretionary consumer spending.
• Key Indicators: The report includes a table of upcoming economic indicators, such as the FOMC minutes, jobless claims, and durable goods orders, with forecasts and historical data.

Europe Market Outlook

• U.K. GDP: The second estimate of the U.K.'s first-quarter GDP is expected to show a 0.1% quarterly growth, with a 1.2% annual growth rate, a slowdown from previous quarters.
• Net Exports: Net exports are expected to contribute slightly to growth, but the impact is mainly due to volatility in the erratic items balance.
• Consumer and Services Spending: Consumer spending is expected to slow, and services spending is also subdued due to cold weather and weak labor market conditions.
• Government and Investment Spending: Government spending and business investment remain weak, with Brexit uncertainty affecting business confidence.
• Key Indicators: The report lists key indicators like the U.K. Consumer Price Index, GDP expenditure breakdown, and retail sales, with forecasts and historical data.

Asia-Pacific Market Outlook

• Japan's Trade Balance: Japan's trade balance is expected to remain in surplus in April, with a forecast of ¥170 billion, up from ¥119 billion in March.
• Core CPI Inflation: Core CPI inflation in Japan is expected to remain stable, with a 0.9% year-over-year increase in March, down from 1% in February.
• Thailand's Economy: Thailand's GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2018, down from 4% in the previous quarter.
• New Zealand's Retail Trade: New Zealand's retail trade is expected to cool to 0.5% quarterly growth, following a 1.7% rebound in the December quarter.
• Trade Surplus: New Zealand's trade surplus is expected to return to a positive level in April, supported by dairy exports and domestic demand.
• South Korea's Monetary Policy: The Bank of Korea is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% in May.

Key Information

• Unemployment and Capacity Utilization: The unemployment rate is a poor indicator of labor market tightness compared to industrial capacity utilization, which better reflects the potential for output growth and its impact on profits and defaults.
• Historical Context: The report compares current labor market conditions with historical periods, noting that a 3.9% unemployment rate in April 2018 is similar to the 3.9% seen in 2000, but the economic backdrop was significantly different.
• Impact of Interest Rates: The report warns that rising interest rates due to increased Treasury supply may curb credit-sensitive spending and destabilize financial markets.
• Economic Forecasting: Moody's Analytics provides updated forecasts for the upcoming week, including GDP, retail sales, and trade data across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that while a low unemployment rate is a positive sign, it may not fully capture the economic dynamics at play. Industrial capacity utilization and other indicators are more reliable in assessing the potential for profit growth and default rates. Moody's highlights the importance of monitoring upcoming economic data and the potential for interest rate changes to impact market stability.