20140120-穆迪服务-NEWS___ANALYSIS_46页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the credit implications of various corporate, banking, insurance, and sovereign events as of January 20, 2014. It includes rating changes, research highlights, and analysis of specific transactions and developments across different sectors.

Main Points by Sector

Corporates

• General Motors (GM): The reinstatement of the dividend is credit negative for GM as it consumes $1.7 billion annually, but credit neutral for GM Financial, which is not expected to change its capital plans.
• Nest Labs Acquisition by Google: The acquisition is credit positive for Google due to the growth potential and data value of Nest's smart-home products.
• Bombardier's CSeries Aircraft Delay: The delay is credit negative as it increases costs, complicates order signing, and strains liquidity.
• Grupo Elektra's Acquisition of Blockbuster: The acquisition is credit positive as it expands retail presence and customer base in Mexico.
• Cosan Logistics' Talks with ALL: The potential business combination is credit positive for ALL, as it could resolve a legal dispute and improve capacity.
• Tencent's Investment in China South City: The investment is credit positive for China South City, enhancing liquidity and supporting e-commerce development.
• Greenland Hong Kong's Partnership with CR Land: The joint venture is credit positive for Greenland Hong Kong, improving liquidity but unlikely to reduce leverage significantly.
• Suntory's Acquisition of Beam Inc.: The acquisition is credit negative for Suntory due to increased debt and leverage, while the impact on Beam is uncertain.
• McKesson's Failed Bid for Celesio: The failed transaction is credit negative for Franz Haniel & Cie. GmbH as it prevents debt reduction and divestment plans.

Banks

• Basel Committee Liquidity Guidance: Easing liquidity guidance is credit negative.
• Russian Central Bank's Liquidity Methodology: Positive for banks.
• RCI Banque's Deposit Funding Plans: Positive for banks.
• Belarus Foreign-Currency Lending Limits: Positive for banks.
• Hong Kong's Personal Lending Rules: Positive for banks.
• CIMB Group's Capital Raise: Positive for its Malaysian bank subsidiaries.

Insurers

• Desjardins' Expansion into Ontario Auto Market: A credit-negative move, indicating a more aggressive strategy that may strain financial performance.

Sovereigns

• Egypt's Constitutional Referendum: A credit-positive step toward political stabilization.

Key Information

• Rating Changes:
  • Downgraded: Orange, Winnipeg Airport Authority, Banco Sabadell.
  • Upgraded: Fortescue Metals Group.
• Research Highlights:
  • Published reports on US technology, US retailers, US gaming, global pharmaceuticals, Italian banks, Japanese insurers, Sub-Saharan Africa sovereigns, Abu Dhabi, US ABS, US CMBS, US mortgage servicers, Latin American securitization, Italian RMBS, European RMBS and ABS, and global CLOs.
• Securitization:
  • J.C. Penney Store Closings are credit negative for six CMBS transactions.

Financial Metrics and Outlooks

• General Motors:
  • Gross liquidity of $33.8 billion as of September 30, 2013.
  • Free cash flow of $3 billion for the 12 months ended September 30, 2013.
  • Expected to maintain strong liquidity despite the dividend.
• Bombardier:
  • Cumulative free cash flow consumption of $4 billion since 2010.
  • Adjusted leverage of 7.2x as of September 30, 2013.
  • Potential for further rating downgrade if leverage remains high.
• Suntory:
  • Debt/EBITDA could rise to 6x or more post-acquisition.
  • Potential to improve profitability and diversify operations.
• China South City:
  • Improved liquidity and equity base with Tencent's investment.
  • Expected to have sufficient funds for development over the next 12-18 months.
• Liberty Global's Reorganization:
  • Credit negative for UPC due to increased leverage and reduced geographic diversification.
  • UPC's debt/EBITDA was just above 5x as of September 30, 2013.
• Franz Haniel & Cie. GmbH:
  • High market-value gearing of 29% to 36%.
  • Expected to remain committed to debt reduction despite the failed transaction.

Conclusion

The document highlights a mix of credit positive and credit negative implications from various corporate actions, regulatory changes, and market developments. While some companies are benefiting from strategic moves and regulatory support, others are facing challenges that may affect their credit quality. The analysis underscores the importance of liquidity, leverage, and operational performance in determining credit outcomes.