亚洲的气候风险与应对措施：研究预览（英文版）_24页_1mb

Summary of "Climate risk and response in Asia"

Core Content

This document, part of the Future of Asia research series by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), outlines the physical and socioeconomic climate risks that Asia is likely to face by 2050 under the high-emission RCP 8.5 scenario. It also highlights the potential for adaptation and mitigation strategies to manage these risks, emphasizing the region's unique position in addressing climate challenges due to its ongoing infrastructure development and economic growth.

Main Viewpoints

• Climate change is a growing threat: Asia is at the forefront of climate change impacts, with increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, flooding, and typhoons.
• Asia's vulnerability is high: The region is projected to experience more severe climate hazards than many other parts of the world, particularly in terms of heat, water stress, and agricultural impacts.
• Economic and social consequences are significant: The document assesses how these physical climate hazards translate into socioeconomic impacts across five key systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.
• The poor will be disproportionately affected: Climate risk is regressive, meaning that lower-income populations are more vulnerable to its impacts.
• Adaptation and mitigation are critical: The document underscores the importance of proactive measures to build resilience, especially as many parts of Asia are still developing infrastructure and urban areas.

Key Information

Climate Hazards in Asia by 2050

• Temperature rise: Under RCP 8.5, Asia's average temperature is projected to increase by more than 2°C by 2050 compared to preindustrial levels.
• Lethal heat waves: Large cities in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan may experience heat waves exceeding the survivability threshold (wet-bulb temperature > 34°C) by 2050, with an annual probability of around 20%.
• Extreme precipitation: The likelihood of once-in-50-year precipitation events could increase three- to fourfold in regions such as eastern Japan, central and eastern China, parts of South Korea, and Indonesia.
• Severe typhoons: The frequency and intensity of typhoons in Asia could rise, particularly in the future period (2031–2050).
• Drought: The spatial extent and duration of drought conditions are expected to increase, with some areas in southwestern Australia and parts of China projected to experience drought for over 80% and 40–60% of the time, respectively.
• Water supply changes: Some parts of Asia may see a significant decline in water supply, while others may experience increases, depending on the region and climate conditions.

Socioeconomic Impacts

• Livability and workability: Heat and humidity could reduce effective outdoor working hours, affecting productivity and economic output. In Ho Chi Minh City, direct infrastructure damage from a 100-year flood could cost between $500 million and $1 billion by 2050, with knock-on costs potentially reaching $1.5 billion to $8.5 billion.
• Food systems: Agricultural yields for major crops like rice, corn, soy, and wheat may decline by more than 10% in several countries, impacting food security and supply chains.
• Physical assets and infrastructure: Capital stock in Asia could be damaged by riverine flooding, with projections indicating that up to $1.2 trillion in capital could be at risk annually by 2050.
• Natural capital: Climate change could lead to "biome shifts," where land surface classifications change due to shifting climate patterns, affecting ecosystems and biodiversity.

The "Four Asias" Framework

The MGI categorizes Asian countries into four groups based on their development status and exposure to climate risks:

1. Frontier Asia

   • Includes Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan
   • These countries face extreme increases in heat and humidity, with significant impacts on workability and livability.
   • Lethal heat waves could affect 500 million to 700 million people by 2050.

2. Emerging Asia

   • Includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, Laos
   • These countries are expected to see rising impacts on outdoor working hours, capital stock at risk of flood damage, and changes in land surface classification.
   • Water stress and food system disruptions are also key concerns.

3. Developed Asia

   • Includes Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea
   • These countries may face moderate to high risks of climate impacts, particularly in terms of extreme weather events and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
   • The risk of extreme precipitation and typhoons is significant.

4. China

   • A separate category is given to China due to its unique economic and geographic characteristics.
   • It is expected to see a moderate increase in climate risk across various indicators.

Risk Management and Opportunities

• The document emphasizes the need for adaptation and mitigation to address the nonlinear and systemic nature of climate risks.
• Infrastructure development offers a key opportunity to build resilience, as many parts of Asia are still in the process of urbanization and construction.
• Innovation and policy can help harness the region's potential to lead global climate responses.

Conclusion

The research highlights that climate risk is increasing in Asia and will have severe socioeconomic consequences unless effectively managed. The "Four Asias" framework helps to illustrate how different parts of the region will be impacted in unique ways, with the poorest countries likely to suffer the most. MGI’s analysis serves as a critical first step in understanding and responding to these challenges, urging leaders to take proactive measures to ensure resilience and sustainable growth.