2016年-普华永道全球_ETFs_A_roadmap_to_growth_36页_1mb

报告摘要

ETFs: A Roadmap to Growth Summary

Core Content

This document presents the findings of PwC's 2nd Annual Global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) survey, highlighting the growth trajectory of the ETF industry and the factors influencing its expansion across North America, Europe, and Asia. It outlines a roadmap for ETF growth, focusing on product innovation, distribution strategies, regulatory changes, technological advancements, and global expansion opportunities.

Main Views

1. Growth of ETFs

ETFs have seen substantial growth since their inception in 1993, with record global flows of US$351 billion in 2015.
Global ETF assets under management (AUM) increased from US$1.463 trillion in 2010 to US$2.959 trillion in 2015, representing 102% cumulative growth over five years.
The survey predicts that global ETF AUM will exceed US$7 trillion by 2021, with 41% of participants expecting this level.
Three growth scenarios are outlined:
- Baseline scenario: US$6.2 trillion by 2021, at a 13% combined annual growth rate.
- Moderate growth scenario: US$7 trillion by 2021, assuming a 6.5% positive impact from regional accelerants.
- High growth scenario: US$8.2 trillion by 2021, assuming a 12% positive impact from regional accelerants.

2. Regional Growth

North America dominates in size and continues to lead in growth, with AUM expected to reach US$5.9 trillion by 2021.
Europe is expected to grow at 27% annually, reaching US$1.6 trillion by 2021.
Asia is the smallest market but is expected to grow at 18% annually, reaching US$560 billion by 2021.
Investor education is universally considered a key to further ETF growth in all regions.

3. Growth Accelerators

Online platforms are seen as a major growth driver, especially in North America, with 71% of respondents expecting them to generate significant demand.
Financial advisors are expected to be a top demand driver, with 86% of North American respondents indicating this.
Fixed-income ETFs are viewed as one of the best growth opportunities, especially in Europe.
Smart beta products are gaining traction in North America and Europe, while commodity ETFs are seen as more promising in Asia.
Robo-advisors are expected to have a moderate impact on ETF growth, with 64% of North American respondents expecting this, despite their potential.

4. Potential Differentiators in Crowded Markets

Corporate brand is considered the most important factor for raising ETF assets, with 60% of participants rating it very important.
Institutional channels, differentiated investment strategies, and investment track record are also seen as very important by ~40% of participants.
Lower costs, proprietary distribution channels, and tax efficiency are considered slightly less important, though cost remains a key trend in the industry.

5. Regulatory Impact

Regulations are a key factor in ETF growth, with ~34% of participants believing they significantly impact growth and innovation.
Derivative rules and liquidity requirements are seen as critical regulatory developments, particularly in the US.
In Europe, lower distribution costs and regulatory changes are also considered important for growth.
Regulatory hurdles are seen as a potential drag on growth, especially in Asia.

6. Technology and Innovation

Technology and data analytics are seen as major contributors to ETF growth and innovation.
ETF firms are expected to leverage big data, digital tools, and social media to improve decision-making and client relationships.
The use of online platforms is expected to expand, especially in North America, to reach a broader investor base.

7. Globalisation and Cross-Border Expansion

ETF sponsors are increasingly looking to expand globally, with 83% of Asian firms and 71% of European managers expecting to launch ETFs outside their home markets.
North American firms are more cautious, with only 50% expecting to expand globally.
Effective distribution channels, understanding local regulations, and developing relationships with local capital markets are seen as critical for successful global expansion.

Key Information

Survey Methodology: Conducted in 2015, the survey included approximately 60 firms worldwide, with over 70% being ETF managers or sponsors.
Global ETF Growth Model: A tool developed by PwC to project AUM levels and understand the impact of various factors on growth.
Market Maturity: North America is the most mature ETF market, while Asia is the least mature and has the most potential for growth.
Challenges: Lack of effective distribution channels is a major obstacle, with 42% of participants citing it as a limiting factor.
Opportunities: Fixed-income ETFs, smart beta products, and global expansion are seen as major growth areas.

Conclusion

The ETF industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, with global AUM projected to exceed US$7 trillion by 2021. The key drivers include product innovation, expanding distribution channels, investor education, and globalisation. While regulations and tax considerations may pose challenges, they also have the potential to foster more integrated and efficient markets. Technology and online platforms are expected to play a transformative role in the ETF industry, particularly in North America, where robo-advisors and digital tools are anticipated to increase ETF penetration among individual investors.