2009年-世界发展银行全球_Social_Assistance_-_Cash_Transfers___Potential_Impact_of_Decision_67_25页_903kb

Summary of "Poverty Assessment: Social Protection Chapter Background Paper 2"

Core Content

This document assesses the potential impact of Decision 67/2007/ND-CP on poverty in Vietnam, focusing on social assistance cash transfers. The study uses the 2006 VHLSS (Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey) data to estimate the program's effectiveness if it had been fully implemented in that year, due to the lack of administrative data post-implementation.

Main Points

1. Definition of Social Assistance and Social Protection

• Social protection includes cash transfers to protect households from poverty.
• Social assistance specifically aims to help poor households meet their basic needs and avoid extreme poverty.
• Social assistance is distinct from other social policies such as education subsidies or infrastructure development.

2. Overview of Decision 67

• Decision 67 introduced new categories of beneficiaries and increased allowance amounts.
• New categories include:
  • Children with no one to rely on (including those with HIV/AIDS).
  • Elderly aged 85 and above not receiving pensions.
  • Households with at least two seriously disabled members.
  • Poor households raising children alone or with adopted children.
• Allowances increased from 65,000 to 480,000 VND per month.
• Emergency allowances are also provided in cases of sudden economic hardship.

3. Potential Impact on Poverty

• The study estimates the potential coverage of the poor under Decision 67 if fully implemented.
• Using GSO, MOLISA, and registered poor criteria, between 30.3% to 35% of poor households could have been eligible.
• If all allowances were used for consumption, 17.9% to 26.2% of poor households could have been lifted out of poverty.
• The poverty rate could have been reduced by 1.0 to 2.1 percentage points, depending on the targeting criteria.

4. Inefficiencies and Challenges

• Screening and targeting are major challenges in the implementation of social assistance programs.
• Non-poor households account for a significant portion of the potential beneficiaries (36.8% to 68.4%).
• Allowance amounts are not adjusted based on the poverty gap, leading to inefficiencies:
  • 31.8% of GSO poor households and 27.3% of registered poor receive allowances that are more than enough to cover their poverty gap.
  • 39% of GSO poor and 43.9% of registered poor receive allowances that are too small to cover their poverty gap.

5. Focus on the Extremely Poor

• The study highlights that the Decision 67 does not fully target the extremely poor, especially those who are not registered.
• 4.2 million registered poor and 1.9 million extremely poor (not registered) would have been excluded from the program.
• The excluded extremely poor represent 54.1% of the ethnic minority population.

6. Demographic and Structural Considerations

• The eligibility criteria focus on household structure and non-working members.
• High dependency ratios (e.g., many children or elderly under 85) are not fully captured in the criteria.
• Children in extremely poor households are more likely to be working and less likely to attend school, which has long-term negative impacts on their development and future earnings.

Key Information

• Budget allocation for social allowances increased significantly from 510 million VND in 2007 to 2100 million VND in 2008.
• Coverage of the poor under the program was estimated to be between 25.0% to 29.8% of the poor population.
• Poverty gap is not considered in determining the amount of social allowances, leading to possible inefficiencies.
• The exclusion of non-registered extremely poor highlights the need for improved registration and targeting mechanisms.
• Ethnic disparities exist in the coverage of social assistance, with a higher exclusion rate among ethnic minorities.

Conclusion

While Decision 67 expands the scope of social assistance, its potential impact on poverty reduction is limited due to inefficiencies in targeting, inadequate allowance amounts, and incomplete coverage of the extremely poor. The study underscores the importance of improving registration systems, adjusting allowance amounts based on individual poverty levels, and expanding eligibility criteria to better address the needs of vulnerable groups, particularly children and elderly in poor households.