2009年-世界发展银行全球_Southern_Mongolia_Infrastructure_Strategy_106页_1mb

Southern Mongolia Infrastructure Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the infrastructure strategy for Southern Mongolia, focusing on the development of towns, transport, energy, water, and social and environmental considerations, in support of the mining industry's growth. It emphasizes the need for coordinated planning, institutional development, and financial mechanisms to ensure sustainable and equitable development.

Main Points

1. Mining in Southern Mongolia

• Major Mines: Southern Mongolia has several major coal and copper mines, including Tavan Tolgoi, Uhaahudag, Baruun Naran, Tsagaan Tolgoi, Shivee Ovoo, and Oyu Tolgoi (copper).
• Production Estimates:
  • Coal production could reach up to 45 million tonnes per year.
  • Oyu Tolgoi, a copper mine, is expected to generate significant revenue, with potential annual earnings of $2.3 billion when combined with gold production.
• Market Potential:
  • The Chinese market is projected to absorb 20 million tonnes of coking coal annually, with Mongolia in a strong position to dominate this market.
  • Steam coal has limited market potential due to China's abundant domestic production.
• Revenue Potential:
  • Exporting 20 million tonnes of coking coal could generate $2 billion in annual revenue.
  • Exporting 15 million tonnes of steam coal could generate $0.9 billion annually.
• Infrastructure Needs:
  • Significant investment ($5 billion) is required to support mining activities and related infrastructure.
  • The mining industry's growth could generate over $5 billion in annual revenue, which could be leveraged for infrastructure development.

2. Town Development

• Population Growth:
  • The report assumes that the population will increase by about eight times the number of mine employees.
  • Families of mine workers may attract additional residents due to economic opportunities.
• Town Development Models:
  • Fly-in Fly-out (FIFO): Workers stay at the mine for 2-3 weeks and return home for 1 week. This model results in lower population influx and lower investment.
  • Gated Community: Segregated from the local community, often for security or different living standards.
  • Integrated Community: Incorporates new residents into existing towns, which can provide social benefits but requires existing community capacity.
  • Company Town: A mining company builds all housing and infrastructure, but may not be sustainable for large population influx.
• Capital Costs:
  • Town development could require up to $1.4 billion by 2015.
  • Estimated capital costs for town development are listed in the table below.

3. Land Transport

• Rail vs. Road:
  • Rail is more cost-effective for large freight volumes, but may involve higher investment costs.
  • Road transport is less efficient for large-scale mineral exports.
• Railway Routes:
  • Several potential routes are analyzed, with the most cost-effective being the Tavan Tolgoi – Gashuun Sukhait – Baotou route.
  • The cost of transporting coal to international markets is highly sensitive to rail freight rates and distances.
• Railway Market Power:
  • Monopolistic control by railway operators (Chinese, Russian, or Mongolian) could lead to excessive pricing and reduced competitiveness.
  • Long-term contracts with Chinese railways may be necessary to ensure stable pricing for coal and other minerals.
  • Alternative routes to Russia may be required if Chinese railway pricing becomes too high or if long-term agreements cannot be secured.

4. Electricity

• Existing Systems:
  • Current electricity and heating systems are inadequate to support mining growth.
• Demand Forecast:
  • Increased demand is expected as mining activities expand.
• Supply Options:
  • Options include using existing infrastructure, building new power plants, or utilizing local diesel generators.
• Cost-Covering Tariffs:
  • Tariffs for new infrastructure could be significantly higher than current rates, with full cost tariffs up to 26 times higher for wastewater.
• Impact of Oyu Tolgoi:
  • Chinese imports of Oyu Tolgoi's output will affect electricity pricing and revenue streams.

5. Water Resources

• Demand:
  • Water demand is expected to rise with population and industrial growth.
• Supply Options:
  • Groundwater and surface water pipelines are considered.
• Costs and Management:
  • Groundwater is a potential supply source, but requires careful management to avoid over-extraction.
  • Surface water pipelines are more expensive and less flexible.
• Current Priorities:
  • Development of water infrastructure to support mining and population growth.

6. Social Issues

• Benefit Sharing:
  • The Government should ensure that local communities benefit from mining activities.
• Social Services:
  • Adequate provision of housing, healthcare, education, and other services is necessary for new residents.
• Vulnerable Groups:
  • Special attention must be given to the needs of vulnerable populations, such as women, children, and indigenous communities.
• Current Priorities:
  • Ensuring social equity and providing essential services to support new population influx.

7. Environment

• Land Use:
  • Mining activities can lead to land conversion and environmental degradation.
• Transport Impact:
  • Road and rail infrastructure development may have significant environmental consequences.
• Water Abstraction:
  • Increased water use for mining and town development must be managed carefully.
• Current Priorities:
  • Balancing mining development with environmental protection and sustainable resource use.

8. Financing and Institutions

• Financing Needs:
  • A large amount of infrastructure investment is required, with potential funding from private and public sources.
• Institutional Challenges:
  • The Government must establish and manage institutions to oversee infrastructure planning and implementation.
• Responsibility Allocation:
  • Different entities (National Government, Aimag, Soum, mining companies, and private operators) have different advantages and disadvantages in planning and managing infrastructure.
• Current Priorities:
  • Developing a regulatory framework and institutional capacity to support infrastructure planning and management.

Key Information

• Total Infrastructure Investment Needed: Over $5 billion to support mining growth and related infrastructure.
• Population Growth Assumption: Around 8 times the number of mine employees.
• Estimated Population for Mining Centers:
  • Tavan Tolgoi: ~16,772
  • Nariin Sukhait: ~7,967
  • Oyu Tolgoi: ~33,544
  • Tsagaan Tolgoi: ~1,258
  • Shivee Ovoo: ~5,032
  • Dalanzadgad: ~16,772
• Total Estimated Population: ~81,344
• Total Capital Cost for Town Development: ~$1.39 billion
• Railway Cost Estimates:
  • New railway construction costs: ~$1.8 million per km
  • Export routes to Baotou or Huanghua are the most cost-effective.
• Tariff Implications:
  • Full cost tariffs could be significantly higher than current rates, with wastewater tariffs up to 26 times higher.
• Infrastructure Planning:
  • A consultative process is recommended to involve all stakeholders.
  • Town development plans should include capital and operating costs, financing, design, operation, and tariff structures.
• Government Role:
  • The Government should not only support mining but also ensure broader regional development and social equity.

Current Priorities

• Town Development: Establishing and managing a range of town development models to support mining growth.
• Railway Development: Building cost-effective railway routes to support coal and copper exports, while mitigating market power concerns.
• Electricity and Water Supply: Developing infrastructure to meet rising demand and ensure cost recovery.
• Social and Environmental Management: Ensuring that mining benefits are shared equitably and that environmental impacts are minimized.
• Institutional Capacity: Building and strengthening institutions to manage infrastructure planning and implementation effectively.