2007年-世界发展银行全球_Rwanda___Toward_Sustained_Growth_and_Competitiveness_Volume_1_Synthesis_and_Priority_Measures_74页_4mb

Summary of Rwanda Country Economic Memorandum (CEM)

Core Content

The Rwanda Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), part of a two-volume report published in October 2007, outlines the analytical basis for achieving the Government's long-term goals of growth and poverty reduction as outlined in Vision 2020. The report highlights the need for targeted interventions to support sustainable development, particularly in the context of transitioning from aid-dependent growth to a more private-sector-driven model.

Main Goals and Targets

• Vision 2020 aims to increase per capita income from US $230 to US $900 by 2020.
• Reduce poverty incidence by 50 percent by 2020.
• The first Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) projected GDP growth of 6–7 percent for long-term goals to be achieved.

Economic Performance Overview

• GDP Growth: Real GDP growth averaged 10 percent between 1995 and 2005, with an average inflation rate of 10 percent.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty incidence declined from 78 percent in 1994 to 56.9 percent in 2007.
• Per Capita Income: Increased from US $245 in 2000 to US $260 in 2005.
• Education: Net primary school enrollment reached 95 percent.
• Health: Under-5 mortality fell by 30 percent, and immunization coverage reached 90 percent, one of the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Challenges Identified

Despite progress, several challenges persist:

• Infrastructure Deficits: Poor infrastructure, especially electricity supply and road maintenance, limits productivity and export capacity.
• Low Resource Mobilization: The country has not effectively mobilized domestic resources, although it is well-positioned to receive increased aid.
• High Trade Costs: The landlocked position and poor infrastructure increase trade costs.
• Dependence on Rain-fed Agriculture: Makes the economy vulnerable to terms of trade shocks.
• Skilled Labor Shortage: Limits the competitiveness of the private sector and hinders business development.

Priority Measures for Sustained Growth

The report identifies four key priority measures to support long-term growth and competitiveness:

1. Invest in Infrastructure: To reduce constraints on growth and export diversification.
2. Improve Spending Efficiency: Through better policy design and resource allocation.
3. Transform the Agriculture Sector: To make it more market-oriented and increase productivity.
4. Support Private Sector Development: By improving the business and investment climate.

Priority Measure 1: Invest to ease infrastructure constraints

• Electricity: Frequent power outages and unreliable supply significantly affect productivity in both large and medium enterprises.
• Roads: Poor condition of unpaved roads limits rural market access.
• Rehabilitation Strategy: A systematic and planned approach to road maintenance and cost recovery is needed.

Priority Measure 2: Supportive policies for improved spending efficiency

• Aid Management: Focus should be on improving the composition and efficiency of spending.
• Education: Need to evaluate subsidies between primary, secondary, and tertiary education.
• Health: Strengthen community-based health delivery systems.
• Infrastructure: Reduce technical losses in electricity and water supply, and rehabilitate rural roads.
• Private Sector Involvement: Leverage private sector participation in service delivery.

Priority Measure 3: Transform the agriculture sector

• Productivity: Improve the use of agricultural inputs and water management.
• Farmer Organizations: Support and link them to existing and potential value chains.
• Extension Services: Strengthen agronomist and veterinary services.
• Non-farm Employment: Develop alternative income sources for small landholders.
• Agricultural Growth: Achieving a 6 percent growth rate is critical for poverty reduction.

Priority Measure 4: Support and incentives for private sector development

• Access to Finance: Develop financial products tailored to micro and small enterprises.
• Infrastructure Investment: Enhance export capacity by reducing supply constraints.
• Skilled Labor: Programs for on-the-job training and vocational education are needed to meet labor market demands.
• Education System: Align with market needs through a comprehensive skills development strategy.

Key Sectors and Policies

• Agriculture: Main growth source, with potential for poverty reduction.
• Manufacturing: Growth projected to rise to 11.5 percent but has slowed due to various constraints.
• Tourism and ICT: Emerging sectors with growth potential.
• Reforms: Exchange rate liberalization, tariff reductions, and privatization of state-owned enterprises have been implemented.

Conclusion

The CEM emphasizes the need to shift from aid-driven to private-sector-driven growth. It provides a foundation for the development of the second-generation PRSP (EDPRS) and the new Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), which will be prepared in collaboration with DFID. The report also draws on multiple studies and analyses, including the Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS), Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), and others, to inform policy decisions.