2013年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan___Financial_Assessment_of_Barki_Tojik_14页_1mb

Summary of Financial Assessment of Barki Tojik (BT)

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive financial assessment of Barki Tojik (BT), the national power utility of Tajikistan, focusing on its financial performance, challenges, and future projections. The analysis is based on a financial model using BT's audited financial statements from 2009-2012 and the Winter Energy Study by the World Bank.

Main Concerns and Key Findings

• Financial Management Deficiencies: BT has significant issues with financial reporting, including opaque and inefficient cost structures, unreliable data, and auditors' inability to express an opinion on 2011 and 2012 financial statements.
• Tariff and Cost Discrepancy: In 2012, the average billed tariff was 27% lower than the estimated cost of supply. The company only recovers 63% of billed revenue in cash, leading to a cash deficit.
• Cash Flow Shortages: In 2012, BT had a TJS325 million (US$68 million) cash deficit to fully finance domestic supply expenses, equivalent to 20% of the estimated required revenue. This is due to high electricity losses, poor collection rates, and unexplained financial discrepancies.
• Electricity Losses: In 2012, electricity losses were close to 20% of supply, and 15% of gross supply. These losses are a major contributor to BT's financial instability.
• Collection Rates: The average collection rate for billed electricity was 87% during 2009-2012, with irrigation and water supply contributing only 0.3% of collected revenue despite accounting for 12% of billed supply.
• Debt Service Issues: BT has a gearing ratio of 84% in 2012, with US$630 million of outstanding debt. The company failed to meet the World Bank's ELRP AF loan covenant due to non-compliance with cost-recovery tariffs. It also faced penalties of 25% of financing costs due to late debt service payments.
• Debt Coverage Ratio (DSCR): The DSCR was below 1.0 in 2011 and 2012, indicating liquidity problems. The situation is expected to worsen under certain investment scenarios.
• Investment Needs: To eliminate winter energy shortages, BT requires US$3.1 billion in capital investments by 2020, including rehabilitation, new generation, and loss reduction initiatives.
• Financial Projections:
  • Scenario 1 (BAU without Tariff Increase): BT is projected to have negative net profits until 2018. The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to reach 120% by 2020. The cost of supply will increase by 67% to 20 diram/kWh by 2020, with the average tariff significantly lagging behind cost-recovery levels.
  • Scenario 2 (Investments + Inflation-adjusted Tariff Increase): This scenario leads to negative net income and insufficient debt service coverage. The DSCR remains below 1.0 throughout the forecast period. The cost of supply is expected to increase by 200% to 36 diram/kWh by 2020, but even with inflation-adjusted tariffs, the company will not reach cost-recovery levels.

Key Financial Metrics

Financial Structure and Debt

• Outstanding Debt: As of January 1, 2013, BT had US$524 million of sovereign guaranteed debt, which accounts for 20% of Tajikistan's total public debt.
• Debt Service Payments: The company's debt service coverage ratio was below 1.0 in 2011 and 2012, indicating severe liquidity issues.
• Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): The DSCR was 0.62 in 2012, and the total required debt service was US$460 million.
• Interest and Principal Payments: In 2012, interest payments amounted to US$347 million, and principal repayments were US$113 million.

Operational and Financial Challenges

• Operational Inefficiencies: High electricity losses and poor collection rates are major issues affecting BT's financial performance.
• Tariff Adjustments: The company's current tariff levels are below cost-recovery, and significant tariff increases will be necessary to ensure financial sustainability.
• Working Capital Issues: Trade and other receivables fluctuated, and payables increased significantly. The company's reliance on delayed payments to creditors and IPPs is not sustainable and may deter private investment.
• Cost Structure: A significant portion of expenses is classified as "general expenses" or "other expenses," with no clarity on their economic justification.

Conclusion

The financial assessment highlights BT's severe challenges in generating sufficient cash flow to meet operational and financial obligations. The combination of high electricity losses, poor collection rates, and a misaligned tariff structure has led to a cash deficit and liquidity problems. Without significant tariff increases and investment in infrastructure, BT's financial sustainability and ability to service debt will remain at risk, with potential fiscal implications for the Tajikistan government. The report underscores the need for improved financial transparency, operational efficiency, and policy reforms to ensure a reliable and sustainable electricity supply.