IMF-应对气候冲击：空间框架下的粮食安全（英）-2023.8-46页_4mb

Key Findings from "Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework":

• Climate Shocks Impact: Historical climate shocks (2011-2022) caused an average annual 2.3% GDP loss and 3.1% welfare loss, increasing undernourishment by 2.8%.

• Vulnerability Drivers:

  • Remote/Districts face twice the welfare losses (5.9% vs. 2.9%) compared to connected districts.
  • Undernourished households suffer 50% higher welfare losses, with losses reaching 4.3% annually.
  • Climate shocks magnify impacts through higher food prices (+1.9-7%) in remote areas.

• Coping Mechanisms: Households use migration (5% rise in migrant share), trade (+15% food imports after shocks), and asset liquidation. Access to trade/migration reduces vulnerability by 20%.

• Policy Effectiveness:

  • Reducing trade costs lowers welfare losses (2.7% vs. 3.3%) and undernourishment (2% rise vs. 2.8%).
  • However, these policies may increase undernourishment in 18% of districts, harming poorer households due to cross-district spillovers.

• Policy Recommendations: Target infrastructure investments toward remote areas to maximize resilience, especially for vulnerable households.