PitchBook-全球基金业绩报告（英）-2022-24页_2mb

Fund Performance Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the performance of various private market strategies, including Private Equity (PE), Venture Capital (VC), Real Estate, Real Assets, Private Debt, Funds of Funds (FoF), and Secondaries, as of September 30, 2021, and includes preliminary data for Q4 2021. The performance metrics include Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Total Value to Paid-in (TVPI), and cash flows.

Main Strategies and Performance

Private Equity (PE)

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 3.4%
• 1-year IRR: 46.4%
• 3-year IRR: 24.1%
• 5-year IRR: 21.0%
• 10-year IRR: 17.0%
• Key Insight: PE returns declined in Q3 2021 due to macroeconomic shifts like inflation and rising interest rates. Despite this, the asset class remained resilient, outperforming public markets. Mega-funds drove returns, but smaller funds showed greater resilience. The one-year IRR for PE was lower than VC, indicating a relative underperformance.

Venture Capital (VC)

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 4.6%
• 1-year IRR: 59.9%
• 3-year IRR: 30.5%
• 5-year IRR: 23.2%
• 10-year IRR: 17.0%
• Key Insight: VC experienced a significant drop in performance in Q3 2021, ending a streak of five consecutive quarterly increases. The asset class had strong returns driven by markups, but the market began to tighten in Q1 2022. Returns for small funds were notably higher than for large funds, and there was considerable dispersion among fund managers.

Real Estate

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 6.5%
• 1-year IRR: 17.2%
• 3-year IRR: 8.5%
• 5-year IRR: 9.7%
• 10-year IRR: 11.6%
• Key Insight: Real estate had its best one-year performance since 2014, with strong returns from logistics and self-storage sectors. However, the asset class is expected to face challenges due to inflation, interest rate hikes, and a return to normal office and retail activity. The performance of real estate funds is more predictable than some other strategies.

Real Assets

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 4.5%
• 1-year IRR: 18.5%
• 3-year IRR: 3.7%
• 5-year IRR: 6.8%
• 10-year IRR: 6.2%
• Key Insight: Real assets had a strong one-year return, driven by oil prices and infrastructure demand. However, the quarterly IRR declined in Q3 2021. Infrastructure and energy-related assets are expected to benefit from rising oil prices and inflation-linked contracts. The war in Ukraine has positively impacted commodities prices, creating uncertainty for future performance.

Private Debt

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 2.1%
• 1-year IRR: 15.4%
• 3-year IRR: 7.9%
• 5-year IRR: 8.0%
• 10-year IRR: 9.3%
• Key Insight: Private debt had a strong annual return, but quarterly performance declined. Distressed and special situations funds led the way, followed by mezzanine and bridge funds. The strategy is generally less volatile and more income-producing, though it is expected to face pressure from rising interest rates.

Funds of Funds (FoF)

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 5.0%
• 1-year IRR: 50.9%
• 3-year IRR: 23.1%
• 5-year IRR: 18.8%
• 10-year IRR: 13.9%
• Key Insight: FoF outperformed the overall private capital fund universe, with a one-year return of 50.9% compared to 37.9% for the broader universe. The strategy is composed mostly of PE and VC, which contributed to its strong performance. FoF had a positive net cash flow in 2021, which should support fundraising in 2022.

Secondaries

• Quarterly IRR (Q4 2021): 9.9%
• 1-year IRR: 52.5%
• 3-year IRR: 17.9%
• 5-year IRR: 17.3%
• 10-year IRR: 13.2%
• Key Insight: Secondaries had strong performance, with a one-year IRR of 52.5%. The returns were largely from distributed capital, which is realized and returned to limited partners (LPs). The strategy saw record drawdowns in 2021 due to increased commitments, resulting in a net cash flow that was almost balanced.

Key Information

• Performance Context: The one-year IRRs for most strategies were exceptionally high, especially for VC and FoF, which saw returns over 50%. However, these figures may not be sustainable due to macroeconomic shifts and public market trends.
• Public Market Impact: The recent decline in public market indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI may indicate a potential pullback in private fund performance. This is particularly relevant for strategies that rely on public market valuations.
• Volatility and Dispersion: There is significant return dispersion across strategies and fund vintages. For example, VC had a top-decile return of 37.1% and a bottom-decile loss of 7.6% for certain vintages. FoF had a spread of 27.7% for the 2016 vintage, while secondaries showed a tight range of returns in some years.
• Market Trends: The report highlights the impact of inflation, interest rate hikes, and the return to normal business activities on private market strategies. Real estate and real assets are expected to benefit from these trends in certain sectors, while others like PE and VC may face headwinds.
• Data Sources: The report is sourced from PitchBook and includes data for the global private capital market. It also provides insights into the performance of different fund types and their cash flows.

Additional Research

• Private Capital Benchmarks: The report includes 2021 PitchBook Benchmarks, which are updated with preliminary Q4 2021 data.
• Allocator Solutions: There are reports on cash flow forecasting and commitment pacing for 2022.
• VC and PE Insights: Additional reports focus on the Q1 2022 performance of US VC and PE, highlighting the need for adaptation in a changing market environment.

Conclusion

The private market strategies have shown strong performance in 2021, with VC and FoF leading the pack. However, the report warns of potential challenges in 2022 due to macroeconomic shifts, including inflation, interest rate hikes, and the impact of public market trends. Investors should be aware of the risk of unrealized valuations and the potential for return dispersion among fund managers. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends and adapting investment strategies accordingly.