WTO-2019年全球价值链发展报告-2019.6-196页_7__3mb

Summary of the Global Value Chain Development Report 2019

Core Content

The Global Value Chain Development Report 2019 is a collaborative effort by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Research Center of Global Value Chains (RCGVC-UIBE), the World Bank Group, and the China Development Research Foundation. It explores the evolution of global value chains (GVCs), their implications for trade, employment, and technological innovation, and the broader economic and social effects in both developed and developing economies.

Key Findings and Main Points

• Global Value Chains (GVCs) Overview:
  More than two-thirds of global trade occurs through GVCs, where production crosses at least one border. The growth of GVC-related trade has driven economic expansion globally over the past two decades, primarily due to lower transportation and communication costs and reduced trade barriers. However, this growth has also led to uneven distribution of benefits, contributing to backlash against globalization and protectionist tendencies.

• Post-2008 Financial Crisis:
  The growth of GVCs has slowed since the global financial crisis, though it has not stopped. In 2017, complex GVCs expanded faster than GDP, suggesting potential for a new trend, though it remains uncertain whether this is a sustained shift or a one-year anomaly.

• Sectoral Trends in GVC Participation:
  High-tech sectors are more integrated into GVCs due to their technology (knowledge) intensity. These sectors involve complex, multi-country value chains, whereas traditional manufacturing sectors are less so. China has emerged as a major hub in both supply and demand for simple and traditional GVCs, but the U.S. and Germany remain key players in complex GVCs.

• Labor Market Impacts in Advanced Economies:
  Globalization has led to slow growth in real median wages and a decline in manufacturing employment in advanced economies, while high-skilled and capital-owning workers have seen increased incomes. This is attributed to a combination of factors, including trade and technological change. However, trade is not the main driver of job losses in manufacturing, as some industries have expanded due to cost savings from GVCs, offsetting job losses in others.

• Job Polarization and Worker Displacement:
  Trade and automation have contributed to job polarization, with employment concentrated at the high and low ends of the skills distribution. Middle-skill jobs have been particularly affected. The report emphasizes the need for adjustment policies to ensure a more inclusive distribution of gains, as GVCs amplify changes in skill requirements and demand for worker flexibility.

• Digital Economy and GVCs:
  The digital economy, including technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and the Internet of Things (IoT), is reshaping GVCs. These technologies could either shorten supply chains by encouraging re-shoring or enhance GVCs by reducing coordination and matching costs between buyers and suppliers. For developing countries, the impact is uncertain but could lead to both opportunities and challenges.

• Role of SMEs in GVCs:
  SMEs are under-represented in GVCs, but the digital economy offers new opportunities for them to integrate more effectively into global markets. Mobile internet, platform ecosystems, and digital payment systems can support SMEs in expanding trade and access to international markets.

• Importance of Value-Added Trade Statistics:
  The report highlights the need to use value-added trade (TiVA) rather than gross trade statistics to better understand GVCs and their impact on employment and economic development. This approach provides a more accurate picture of how trade affects jobs and regional economies.

• Policy Implications:

  • Open and transparent policies are more conducive to GVC-led growth than import-reducing policies aimed at increasing domestic value-added content in exports.
  • Attempts to artificially boost domestic value-added in exports before the technological deepening of the economy are likely to be counterproductive.
  • Adjustment policies should not distinguish between the causes of worker displacement (e.g., automation vs. trade) and should focus on supporting worker flexibility and training.
  • Regional and skill-based disparities in labor markets require targeted interventions and complementary policies to address.

Conclusion

The Global Value Chain Development Report 2019 underscores the transformative role of GVCs in the global economy, emphasizing the need for inclusive policies to address the uneven distribution of benefits and challenges arising from trade, automation, and digital transformation. It calls for a nuanced understanding of GVCs and their impacts on employment, with a focus on improving data frameworks and promoting openness in trade and digital ecosystems to support sustainable development and growth.