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EU Dual-Use Export Control Policy Review Final Report Summary

Core Content

This report provides an impact assessment of the EU dual-use export control system, supporting the European Commission's ongoing review. It outlines the methodology, baseline analysis, and evaluation of review options, with a particular focus on the cyber-surveillance sector and other directly affected industries.

Main Points

1. Methodology and Implementation

• The study was conducted by SIPRI and Ecorys between January and September 2015.
• It included three main actions:
  • Development of data collection methodology
  • Analysis of baseline impacts on the dual-use industry
  • Evaluation of review options and their potential effects
• Data was collected from:
  • Public trade, production, and employment statistics
  • EU Member States' licensing and export data
  • Interviews and online surveys with companies and industry associations

2. Dual-Use Industry Overview

• The dual-use industry spans various sectors including chemical, biological, nuclear, and conventional dual-use items.
• A typology of actors was developed, highlighting the differences in sector-specific characteristics.
• The transport sector is affected by dual-use export controls, particularly through the regulation of transit movements.

3. Quantification of the Dual-Use Industry

• Dual-use export licenses issued by EU Member States in 2013 were worth approximately €50 billion.
• Customs trade statistics suggest that dual-use related exports in 2014 reached €476 billion to extra-EU destinations and €623 billion to intra-EU.
• The top-10 sectors by export value include:
  • Machinery and mechanical appliances (HS-84)
  • Electrical machinery and equipment (HS-85)
  • Aircraft & spacecraft (HS-88)
• These sectors account for 90% of total dual-use related exports and 74% of the total number of Annex I dual-use codes with CN classifications.
• Based on customs data correlation, the dual-use industry's export value is estimated to be around 3.9% of total EU exports, or approximately €180 billion.
• Domestic production of dual-use related goods in the EU was estimated at over €600 billion in 2013, but this is likely overestimated due to data limitations.

4. Stakeholder Perceptions

• Business perceptions were gathered through interviews and online surveys.
• Companies reported:
  • High compliance costs
  • Concerns over administrative burden and competitive effects
  • Potential benefits from EU General Export Authorisations
• Licensing authorities highlighted challenges in implementation and enforcement, and expressed concerns about human rights and security implications.

5. Cyber-Surveillance Sector

• The cyber-surveillance sector is defined as the intersection of the ICT and surveillance sectors.
• It includes technologies such as:
  • Mobile telecommunications interception equipment
  • Intrusion software
  • Monitoring centres
  • Lawful Interception (LI) systems and data retention systems
  • Biometrics
  • Digital forensics
  • Location tracking devices
  • Probes
  • Deep Packet Inspection (DPI) systems
• The sector is composed of:
  • SMEs focused on specific cyber-surveillance technologies
  • Larger defence companies offering a broader range of surveillance and security solutions
  • Companies with dual-use technologies for both surveillance and non-surveillance applications
• The global 'mass surveillance' industry was estimated at $5 billion in 2011, but the data is outdated and inconsistent across studies.

6. Impact of Review Options

• Review options were assessed under four European Commission priorities:
  1. Adjust to an evolving security environment and enhance the EU's contribution to international security
  2. Promote export control convergence and a global level playing field
  3. Develop an effective and competitive EU export control regime
  4. Support effective and consistent export control implementation and enforcement
• Each option was evaluated for its potential impact on stakeholders, including:
  • Administrative burden
  • Competitive effects
  • Human rights and security concerns
  • Staff resources and compliance efficiency

7. Sector Case Studies

• Case studies were conducted on the machine tools, chemical, and space sectors to illustrate the sector-specific impacts of dual-use export controls.
• These studies focused on:
  • Sector structure and performance
  • Compliance issues
  • Economic, social, and environmental implications
  • Perceptions of review options

8. Conclusions

• The study highlights the need for a more refined and accurate assessment of the dual-use industry's size and scope.
• It emphasizes the importance of harmonizing export control regulations across the EU and addressing the unique challenges posed by the cyber-surveillance sector.
• The impact of export controls is complex and varies significantly across sectors and company sizes, with particular challenges for SMEs.

Key Information

• Data Limitations: Public statistics and customs data are difficult to isolate dual-use items due to varying classifications.
• Overestimation: Dual-use exports based on customs data are likely overestimated by a factor of 6.2.
• Economic Impact: Compliance costs are a major concern for companies, especially SMEs.
• Social Impact: Human rights and security concerns are significant, particularly with regard to cyber-surveillance technologies.
• Environmental Impact: Not a major focus of the study, as it was not identified as a key concern in surveys or interviews.
• Cyber-Surveillance: This sector is at the center of the review due to its dual-use nature and potential implications for international security and human rights.

Review Options Summary

Figures and Tables Overview

• Figure 3.1: Typology of actors in the dual-use industry

• Figure 6.1: Industries represented by business associations

• Figure 7.1: Overview of the cyber-surveillance sector

• Figure 9.1: Impact of dual-use export controls on sales and competition

• Table 4.1a: Value and volume of export licenses, 2010–2013

• Table 4.3: Value of Danish dual-use exports

• Table 6.1: Review issues and aspects impacting companies

• Table 7.1: Value of dual-use related exports in ICT goods, services and technologies, 2010–2014

• Table 7.2: Value of dual-use related exports in telecommunications and information security items, 2010–2014

• Table 7.3: Summary of case study findings

• Table 7.4: EU-based producers of mobile telecommunications interception equipment

• Table 7.5: EU-based manufacturers of intrusion software

• Table 7.6: EU-based manufacturers of monitoring centres under IP Network Surveillance controls

• Table 7.7: EU-based manufacturers of other types of monitoring centres

• Table 7.8: EU-based manufacturers of LI systems and data retention systems

• Table 7.9: Typology of biometric solutions

• Table 7.10: EU-based manufacturers of biometric systems

Summary of Findings

• The dual-use industry is significant in terms of both exports and production, with major economic implications.
• SMEs face particular challenges in compliance and are more vulnerable to the impact of export controls.
• The cyber-surveillance sector requires special attention due to its complex regulatory and ethical implications.
• Review options vary in their potential to reduce administrative burdens, enhance security, and align with international standards.