兰德-Drivers-of-Long_89页_760kb

Summary: Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization

Core Content

This report explores the role of urbanization in shaping Pakistan's long-term political and security landscape. It focuses on the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta, analyzing how urban growth influences political dynamics, public services, and security challenges.

Main Points

Urbanization Trends in Pakistan

• Urbanization is increasing: Pakistan has been urbanizing steadily since 1971, and the trend is expected to continue, with the urban population projected to surpass the rural population by around 2040.
• Concentration in large cities: Urban growth is highly concentrated in a small number of very large cities, particularly in Punjab and Sindh. The ten largest cities account for more than half of the urban population.
• Megacities dominate: Karachi and Lahore are the two largest cities, and together they hold the majority of urban population growth. Karachi, in particular, is experiencing significant demographic shifts, including an influx of Pashtun migrants that challenges the traditional Mohajir-Sindhi balance.
• Floating populations: Many urban residents maintain strong ties to rural areas, spreading political and ideological trends from cities to rural regions. This includes the impact of the Pakistani diaspora in the Gulf, which functions as a de facto "city" due to its size and influence.

Political Implications

• Urbanization and political parties: The two dominant parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP), rely on rural vote banks, which are expected to shrink as urbanization continues. However, their entrenched positions and spoils systems may allow them to maintain power.
• Emerging political actors: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by Imran Khan, represents a new political force that may gain traction with urban voters. Regional parties like the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party (ANP) are also affected by urban demographic changes.
• Islamist parties: Despite urbanization, Islamist parties have not gained significant traction in the most populous and politically important regions of Pakistan. Their influence is likely to remain limited, though they may still play a role in certain areas.
• Political reform demands: Urbanization is expected to increase popular demand for political reform, which could have both positive and negative implications for U.S. security interests.

Security Considerations

• Anti-American sentiment: Urbanization may increase exposure to international news, potentially fueling anti-American sentiment.
• Radical Islamist groups: Urban residents are exposed to more extreme religious ideologies, such as Deobandi and Salafi Ahl-e Hadith, which could support the growth of radical transnational Islamist groups.
• Counterterrorism dynamics: Urban settings require different counterterrorism strategies compared to rural areas. Drone strikes, which are common in rural regions, are less feasible in cities.
• Karachi as a security risk: Karachi is expected to become a significant hub for terrorism and anti-American extremist activities due to its large population and political instability.
• Lahore and Quetta: These cities are less likely to become centers for radicalization or increased terrorism due to their demographic and political structures.
• Long-term U.S. security implications: While urbanization may temporarily hinder cooperation with U.S. counterterrorism efforts, it could also reduce anti-American hostility in the long run by addressing political and economic grievances.

Key Findings

• Demography is not destiny: Although urbanization has significant implications, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the political structure of Pakistan.
• No game-changers on the horizon: The current political and security landscape is expected to remain stable, with the PML-N and PPP likely to retain their dominance.
• Popular demand for governance: The report highlights the importance of addressing popular demand for better governance and accountability, which is likely to increase with urbanization.

Conclusion

Urbanization in Pakistan is a powerful force that will continue to shape the nation's political and security environment. While it may increase anti-American sentiment and support for radical groups in the short term, it is also likely to drive political reform and potentially reduce long-term hostility toward the U.S. The report emphasizes that urbanization will change but not transform Pakistan's political structure, and that the most likely outcome is a continuation of the current political duopoly.

Appendices and References

• The appendix lists the 50 most populous cities in Pakistan, including current and projected population figures.
• The report draws on data from the UN Population Division and other sources to support its analysis.