2015年-德勤全球_Competitiveness__Catching_the_next_wave_34页_2mb

Deloitte: Competitiveness - Catching the Next Wave in China

Core Content

This report by Deloitte examines China's economic transformation over the past three decades and evaluates the nation's potential to lead the next wave of global growth. It highlights the shift from a low-cost manufacturing base to a more innovation-driven economy, while addressing the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Transformation: China has evolved from a relatively poor, isolated nation into a global economic powerhouse, becoming the second-largest economy in the world and a major contributor to global trade and investment.
• Growth Drivers: China's initial success was fueled by foreign investment, low labor costs, and integration into global supply chains. However, these drivers are diminishing due to rising wages, aging population, and overcapacity in key industries.
• Inflection Point: China is at a critical juncture where traditional growth strategies are no longer sufficient. The nation must transition to more knowledge-based and innovation-driven sectors to ensure long-term prosperity.
• Future Growth Sectors: The report identifies several key industries that are expected to power China's next phase of growth, including aerospace, high-value machinery, life sciences, mobile technology, internet e-tailing, logistics, health services, education, and energy.

Key Information

Economic Analysis and Outlook

• Growth Slowdown: There are signs of a potential slowdown in China's GDP growth, with forecasts indicating a rate of no more than 6.6% annually between 2015 and 2018, down from the 10% growth seen since its WTO accession in 2001.
• Investment Bubbles: Concerns over real estate over-supply and non-traditional investment trusts suggest the risk of unsustainable investment bubbles.
• Credit-to-GDP Ratio: The credit-to-GDP ratio in China has exceeded 200%, indicating a need for a shift toward consumption and services.
• Wage Growth: Rising wages are outpacing productivity, signaling the end of China's low-cost manufacturing advantage.

Historical Growth and Transformation

• Three Phases of Growth:
  1. 1980s–1990s: China's early growth was driven by foreign investment and the establishment of Western-style factories, leading to a surge in exports.
  2. Mid-1990s–Early 2000s: China moved up the value chain, developing more capital-intensive industries and experiencing a boom in construction and privatization.
  3. Post-2000s: China transitioned into a more technologically advanced economy, producing semiconductors and developing internet and mobile phone applications.

China's Competitiveness

• R&D Spending: China now accounts for the second-largest share of global R&D spending, behind the United States.
• Innovation Capacity: Ranked 30th in global innovation capacity, China continues to lag behind more technologically advanced Asian peers like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.
• Education System: China's education system is producing a large number of science and engineering graduates, which is crucial for future innovation and growth.

Strategies for Future Growth

• Smart Manufacturing: China is investing in smart manufacturing, which integrates IT, advanced tools, and human ingenuity. However, adoption remains limited, with only 45% of manufacturers prioritizing R&D as a key investment.
• Innovation Ecosystem: The central government is encouraging the return of overseas-trained scientists and creating clusters for high-tech and bioscience firms.
• Middle Class Expansion: The growth of a broad middle class is driving demand for high-quality and innovative products and services, which in turn supports domestic production and economic scale.
• Infrastructure Development: Investments in infrastructure, such as high-speed rail, are facilitating business and tourism, thereby boosting productivity and economic activity.

Future Growth Sectors

Aerospace

• China is expected to grow significantly in aerospace, driven by its increasing investment in technology and innovation.

High-Value Machinery and Components

• The focus is shifting from mass production to high-value, specialized machinery and components, which require higher skill and innovation.

Life Sciences

• The life sciences sector is set to expand, supported by increased R&D investment and a growing domestic market.

Mobile Technology

• China is a key player in mobile technology, with strong domestic demand and growing exports of related technologies.

Internet E-Tailing and Social Media

• E-commerce and social media are rapidly expanding, creating new opportunities for domestic and international businesses.

Logistics and Other Services

• The logistics sector is expected to grow as China's economy becomes more integrated and complex.

Health Services

• With an aging population, the health services sector is poised for significant development.

Education Services

• Education is a critical component of China's long-term strategy, with the government investing in developing a skilled workforce.

Energy

• The energy sector remains a key area of growth, particularly in the context of global demand and China's role in the supply chain.

Conclusion

China's transition to a more innovation-driven economy is essential for its long-term competitiveness. While the nation has made significant strides in economic development, it must now focus on sectors that leverage knowledge, design, and technology to maintain its global leadership. This transformation will require policy support, investment in R&D, and a shift toward consumption and services, which will not only benefit China but also contribute to global economic growth.