2018-对下一代海底电缆网络的需求（英文版）-5mb

Summary of "SUBMARINE NETWORK NEEDS FOR THE NEXT GENERATION"

Core Content

This document outlines key developments and future trends in the submarine cable industry and the broader telecoms, media, and digital services sectors, with a focus on the year 2018. It highlights the strategic shifts driven by content and cloud providers, the role of SDN in transforming network operations, and the opportunities for telecoms operators in the digital transformation and cloud markets.

Main Predictions for 2018

• Specialist MVNOs will continue to drive innovation in the IoT market.
• New enterprise services will offset losses from traditional enterprise revenue.
• Digital transformation will shift from new service delivery to cost transformation in existing networks.
• Operators that offer digital customer acquisition and support will gain market share.
• Service-specific and unlimited data tariffs will replace volume-based pricing for consumer mobile services.
• OTT video services will outpace traditional pay-TV spending.
• Operators will adopt AI techniques like Alexa to engage customers more digitally.
• Only a small number of 5G NR trials will start in 2018, with most operators waiting until after 2020.
• Over USD6 billion in capex will shift to virtualised and cloud-based networks by 2018, growing to USD50 billion by 2022.
• NGPON-2 will be deployed as a converged infrastructure to support 5G, FTTP, and enterprise services.

Submarine Cable Industry Trends

• Submarine cable investment has increased significantly after a decade of limited activity.
• Over 50 new systems have been completed or are under construction, with 35 more planned by 2022.
• Content and cloud providers (e.g., Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft) are the main drivers of growth in international bandwidth, contributing around 70% of the increase.
• These companies are dictating cable routes, underwriting project risks, and co-owning new cables like MAREA and PLCN.
• Diversity and redundancy in submarine cable systems are critical for business continuity and security.
• Terrestrial dark fibre from landing points to data centres is also being developed due to content provider demand.

Impact on Future Investment

• Route diversity will remain a key driver of investment to mitigate risks from disruptions like cable cuts.
• Security concerns may lead to increased government support for diverse routes.
• New trans-ocean routes will be developed to connect underserved regions, driven by global CDNs.
• Investment will also focus on replacing older cables, developing regional systems, and enhancing network performance.

SDN in the WAN

• Web-scale companies are reshaping the networking landscape, pushing for open programmable user planes.
• FANG and BAT companies (e.g., Facebook, Amazon, Google, Netflix, Alibaba, Tencent) are influencing network protocols and cloud strategies.
• UDP, QUIC, and HTTP/2 are emerging as key protocols for future 5G networks.
• Segment routing is gaining traction as an alternative to MPLS in operator networks.
• White-box routing and P4 programming are enabling more flexible and cost-effective network solutions, with Barefoot Networks' Tofino chip leading the way.
• Operators may face pressure to adopt open-source and disaggregated network operating systems (dNOS) to keep pace with web-scale companies.
• SDN vendors and operators need to collaborate to ensure they do not lose influence in the user plane.

Digital Transformation Opportunities for EMEA Operators

• Digital transformation is expected to add EUR15 billion to EMEA telecoms operators' cash flow by 2021, representing a 50% increase.
• Operators are leveraging online content and applications as drivers for connectivity demand, using advertising, bundling, and digital marketing.
• New market entries (e.g., retail banking, digital advertising) are being pursued by operators, utilizing their existing customer relationships and local presence.
• Network and operations transformations are being implemented to reduce costs and improve performance, using software, cloud platforms, and SDN.
• Operators are focusing on differentiation through value-added services, security, and customer-centric approaches.

Cloud Market Growth and Operator Opportunities

• Cloud services are experiencing rapid growth, with global IT players like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud leading the market.
• Telecoms operators can benefit from the cloud market expansion, especially in industry-specific services and private cloud offerings.
• Operators such as Deutsche Telekom and NTT are showing significant growth in cloud revenue, with Deutsche Telekom being a market leader among telecoms in cloud services.
• Cloud revenue is often underreported by telecoms operators, but they are well-positioned to innovate and partner with IT specialists rather than compete directly with global cloud providers.
• Pricing pressures in the US have led some operators to sell data centres to focus on more competitive areas.

Key Trends and Strategic Directions

• Collaboration with IT specialists and cloud providers is essential for telecoms operators to remain relevant.
• Investment in submarine cables is being driven by content and cloud providers, security needs, and geographic expansion.
• Digital transformation is a key enabler for operators to adapt to market changes, reduce costs, and enhance customer experience.
• The future of networking is likely to see integration of SDN and cloud technologies, greater use of open protocols, and new network architectures like pure IPv6 segment routing.

Conclusion

The submarine cable industry and the broader telecoms sector are undergoing significant transformation, driven by the rise of content and cloud providers. SDN and open programmable user planes are reshaping network operations, while digital transformation and cloud market growth offer substantial opportunities for telecoms operators. Strategic investment, collaboration, and innovation are key to staying competitive in this evolving landscape.