IMF-从极端事件到极端季节：墨西哥气候变化的金融稳定风险（英）-2023.8-36页_1mb

Understanding Financial Stability Risks in Mexico from Climate Change

This paper introduces an innovative analysis approach to evaluate Mexico's financial stability risks from acute physical climate risks, focusing specifically on sequences of extreme events occurring within a single season, such as a combination of tropical cyclones and floods. Using country-specific data from December 2021, the analysis builds upon established methodologies to assess direct damage, spillover to macroeconomic variables, and potential financial sector impacts.

Key findings indicate that while an individual severe extreme event appears unlikely to cause material macroeconomic or financial system-wide impacts, a sequence of such events during one season could positively impact GDP and negatively affect capitalization ratios (CARs) due to direct damages, reduced total factor productivity (TFP), increased unemployment, and portfolio devaluations. Under end-of-century climate change conditions, GDP could decline by up to 2%, and aggregate bank CAR depletion could reach 1.2 percentage points. Insufficient data and methodologies limit the accuracy of projections, particularly concerning indirect impacts and compounding financial sector risks.

The paper contributes to advancing methodologies in financial stability risk management and underscores the importance of considering sequences of extreme events for future climate policy and financial stability oversight.