亚开行-部门债务能力和商业周期：发展中的亚洲与世界经济（英）-2023.5-34页_442kb

Executive Summary

This report by Bada Han, Rashad Ahmed, Yothin Jinjarak, and Joshua Aizenman analyzes sectoral debt capacity and its impact on business cycles, with a focus on developing Asia and the global economy. The study examines how rising debt levels across households, corporations, public, and financial sectors affect future economic growth using empirical data from 55 emerging and frontier market economies.

Key findings include:

• Debt levels increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, with nonfinancial corporate debt driving much of the rise in developing Asia.
• Future economic growth is more sensitive to household debt than corporate debt, with effects varying by economy income levels.
• For poorer economies (GDP per capita below $10,000 PPP-adjusted in 2010), all sectoral debts negatively impact growth, while in richer economies, household debt has a stronger negative effect.
• The severity depends on relative income, heterogeneity in financial systems, and other country-specific factors.
• Policy recommendations emphasize monitoring debt buildup, balancing fiscal and monetary tools, and improving domestic resource mobilization to mitigate risks.

The study underscores the importance of sectoral debt management for sustainable development in Asia and beyond.

Main Findings

• Sectoral debt has risen across most economies, with household and corporate debts playing key roles in growth dynamics.
• Empirical regression analysis shows heterogeneity in debt-growth relationships based on country income groups:
  • Poorer economies experience significant negative impacts from all debt types.
  • Wealthier ones, while less affected by government debt, face greater sensitivity to household and corporate debts.
• Currency composition mismatches and underregulated financial systems exacerbate risks, as seen in historical crises like the East Asian financial crisis.
• Growth effects are influenced by interactions between sectors and macroeconomic factors, with fire sale externalities and balance sheet feedback loops magnifying downturns.

Policy Implications

Policymakers should focus on:

• Prudent monitoring of debt levels and deleveraging processes to avoid growth slowdowns.
• Using fiscal consolidation and domestic resource mobilization to enhance debt repayment capacity without overburdening the economy.
• Addressing heterogeneity through targeted studies and global coordination, given the risks posed by unsustainable debt in various forms.