20240207-兴证期货-碳酸锂日度报告_11页_582kb

报告摘要

carbonate lithium daily report summary | 2024 february 7
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spot prices: domestic 995% battery-grade lithium carbonate avg. 97050 yuan/ton; battery-grade lithium hydroxide avg. 91050 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/month).
futures prices: lc2407 main contract closed at 97150 yuan/ton, a -3300 yuan/month drop.
supply: january lufite (-58% m/m), limum (+41% m/m), salt lake (-74% m/m), leading to total li carbonate production of 41738 tons (-511% m/m), primarily due to limum cuts.
demand: li iron phosphate production at 97310 tons (+24% m/m); nyman materials (523-type) production 17999 tons (+26% m/m). End-market purchases are declining due to year-end timing.

lithium prices fall below 100,000 yuan/ton cost line in australia; imports incurs ~20,000 yuan/ton loss; domestic limum cost ~90,000 yuan/ton.
upstream profits ~4,000-5,000 yuan/ton; downstream (pole factories/batteries) face significant losses, partly due to low 8% pole material utilization.

weak supply/demand dynamics persist, with minimal festive stockpiling. prices expected to oscillate in the short term.

guangzhou futures exchange: successful li carbonate futures delivery, high volume.
bbyd: investing in brazil for lithium assets to build supply chain.
chile SQM incident: protests over rent negotiations, delaying potential outcomes. proves mining disputes.

li carbonate spot: battery-grade ~97k yuan/ton, industrial grade ~89.5k yuan/ton (march 2024 equivalent).
global li trends: brazil li output projected ~5% world supply by 2030. intimating long-term growth.

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