2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Samoa_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_71页_1mb

SAMOA - 2018 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with Samoa by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed the country's economic performance, outlook, and policy recommendations. The consultation highlighted Samoa's resilience to external shocks and its ongoing challenges in maintaining fiscal sustainability and financial stability.

Main Economic Developments

• Growth: Samoa's economy showed resilience, with real GDP growth at 2.5% in 2016/17, driven by commerce, services, and agriculture. Growth is expected to moderate to 1.8% in 2017/18 due to the closure of the Yazaki plant and normalization of fishing exports, but will rebound to 5% in 2019/20 from hosting the Pacific Games (PG).
• Inflation: Inflation rose to 1.3% in 2016/17, below the target of 3%, and is projected to reach about 3% in the medium term.
• Current Account: The current account deficit narrowed to 2.3% of GDP in 2016/17, but is expected to widen to over 4% in the next few years due to increased imports for PG-related investments.
• Exchange Rate: The Samoan Tala appreciated against the U.S. dollar in 2016/17, but nominal and real effective exchange rates remained stable.

Fiscal Position

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened to 1.1% of GDP in 2016/17, primarily due to increased infrastructure spending.
• Public Debt: Public debt fell to below 50% of GDP, down from 58% in 2014/15, but is projected to rise again in the medium term.
• Debt Sustainability: The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase, with the debt sustainability analysis indicating that Samoa remains at high risk of debt distress when considering the impact of natural disasters.

Key Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Framework: Introduce a lower public debt target of 45% of GDP in the medium term and 40% in the long term, and establish a fiscal balance anchor to ensure debt sustainability.
• Monetary Policy: Maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance while improving the transmission mechanism to reduce banks' reluctance to lend.
• CBR Mitigation: Continue efforts to align the Anti-Money Laundering/CFT (AML/CFT) framework with international standards and establish a customer identification and monitoring database.
• FSAP Reforms: Implement the recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), including governance and mandate reforms for public financial institutions (PFIs).
• Structural Reforms: Focus on improving financial inclusion, disaster resilience, and the business environment.

Risks and Challenges

• Natural Disasters: Samoa is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, which have historically caused significant damage and increased public debt.
• CBR Withdrawal: The partial withdrawal of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) poses a risk to remittance inflows and financial stability.
• Fiscal Risks: The fiscal position is expected to loosen further in the medium term, with the deficit reaching 2.5% of GDP by 2021/22.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities broadly agreed with the IMF's assessment and emphasized the temporary nature of the growth moderation.
• They acknowledged the challenges posed by natural disasters and the potential for further CBR withdrawal.
• They highlighted the positive impact of the PG on tourism and the potential for increased export opportunities.

Summary of Revenue Measures

• The government implemented a tax review to broaden the tax base and improve collection, including eliminating concessions, increasing non-tax fees, and raising excise duties.
• These measures are expected to raise revenues, but their impact depends on implementation and compliance.
• A tax deduction for export-oriented businesses and an increased tax-free threshold were introduced.

Fiscal Space and Contingency Planning

• Strengthening the fiscal framework is crucial to create fiscal space for responding to natural disasters and to bring Samoa's debt closer to the average for Pacific island countries.
• The authorities should consider developing a formal on-lending policy and creating a contingency fund from increased revenue or SOE privatization to address disaster-related needs and contingent liabilities.

Conclusion

The IMF's assessment underscores the need for continued fiscal consolidation, improved financial sector governance, and enhanced resilience to natural disasters and CBR withdrawal. The authorities are encouraged to implement the recommended reforms and focus on sustainable development and financial inclusion.