2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Kazakhstan_Selected_Issues_36页_835kb

Kazakhstan: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an in-depth analysis of key economic issues in Kazakhstan, including inclusive growth, external sector assessment, and inflation targeting. It is based on IMF staff assessments and reports as of July 2, 2014, and covers various aspects of income inequality, employment, fiscal policy, and external debt sustainability.

A. Assessment of Inclusive Growth

Main Points

• Inclusive Growth Importance: Inclusive growth is crucial for both social cohesion and macroeconomic stability.
• Income Inequality: Kazakhstan has made progress in reducing income inequality due to strong GDP growth (averaging 8% since 2000) and improved policy frameworks.
  • The growth incidence curve (2004–2009) shows that middle and lower-income groups experienced higher real GDP growth than the upper-income groups.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty has declined significantly over the past decade, from 47% in 2001 to 4% in 2012.
  • Rural Poverty: Rural poverty dropped from 59% to 6%, while urban poverty fell from 36% to 2%.
  • However, the rural poverty gap remains wider than in neighboring countries like Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan.
• Regional Disparities: Poverty concentration varies significantly across regions, with higher rates in south Kazakhstan and lower rates in Astana.
  • The oil sector is capital-intensive and does not generate many jobs, limiting economic spillover effects.
• Fiscal Redistribution: The government has implemented policies to reduce inequality, including:
  • Increasing taxes on real estate and luxury goods.
  • Providing cash transfers to poor households and migrants.
  • Enhancing social spending on education and health.
• Employment Trends:
  • Unemployment has fallen from around 10% in the early 2000s to 5.2% in 2013.
  • Youth unemployment has improved due to expanded vocational training.
  • Female labor force participation is high (67% in 2012), contributing to growth and reducing inequality.
• Vulnerable Employment: A significant portion of the workforce is in vulnerable employment (unpaid family workers and own-account workers), which is not captured well in official statistics.
• Job Creation and Growth: The relationship between job creation and GDP growth is weak, especially since the global crisis.
  • Manufacturing and agriculture sectors have seen limited employment growth.
  • The employment elasticity in Kazakhstan is low (0.23), compared to other regions.
• Unemployment Outlook: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2019, despite a projected GDP growth of 5.2%.
  • To maintain unemployment at 5%, GDP growth should be increased to 6.5%.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Structural reforms are essential to improve labor market responsiveness.
  • Enhancing the business climate, infrastructure, and SME development could boost employment.
  • Aligning education with labor market needs and reducing skill mismatches.
  • Balancing tax and expenditure policies to achieve distributional and efficiency goals.
  • Promoting economic diversification to reduce reliance on the oil sector.

B. External Sector Assessment

Main Points

• Reserve Adequacy:
  • Kazakhstan's international reserves are satisfactory based on traditional metrics.
  • Official reserves (as a % of GDP) compare well with regional and global peers.
  • Including national oil fund (NFRK) assets improves the reserve position significantly.
  • The ARA metric is used to assess reserve adequacy, and Kazakhstan's reserves are well above this threshold.
• External Debt Sustainability:
  • The external debt to GDP ratio is high (73% in 2014) but is projected to decline to 65% by 2019.
  • The decline is driven by non-interest current account surpluses and nondebt creating capital inflows.
  • External debt sustainability is more sensitive to real currency depreciation than to other shocks like interest rates or growth.
  • A 30% real depreciation shock in 2015 could increase the external debt to GDP ratio to 97%.
  • Combined shocks (interest rate, growth, current account) could raise the ratio to 75%.
• Key Findings:
  • Current account deficits have decreased over the years, with the exception of 2009.
  • Exports have been relatively stable, while imports have declined.
  • Net nondebt creating capital inflows have been negative in recent years.
  • Automatic debt dynamics are influenced by real GDP growth and interest rate changes.
  • Fiscal policy should be aligned with fiscal sustainability to support long-term growth and redistribution.

C. Toward Inflation Targeting

Main Points

• Interest Rate Effectiveness: The effectiveness of interest rates in controlling inflation is evaluated.
• Monetary Policy Forward-Looking: The paper assesses whether monetary policy in Kazakhstan is forward-looking.
• Dollarization Impact: Dollarization is discussed as a potential obstacle to inflation targeting.
  • Financial dollarization is high, which could limit the central bank's ability to implement monetary policy independently.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Improving monetary policy frameworks to make them more forward-looking.
  • Addressing the challenges of dollarization to enhance the effectiveness of inflation targeting.

Conclusion

• Inclusive Growth: Kazakhstan has achieved broad inclusive growth, but there is room for improvement, particularly in reducing rural poverty and improving employment outcomes.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Structural reforms are vital for improving labor market efficiency and economic diversification.
  • Fiscal policy should be targeted and efficient to reduce inequality without compromising economic growth.
  • External sector stability is supported by adequate reserves and a projected decline in external debt.
  • Inflation targeting requires a more independent and forward-looking monetary policy framework.

Key Figures and Tables

• Income Inequality:
  • GDP growth (8% since 2000).
  • Rural poverty dropped from 59% to 6% (2001–2012).
  • Regional disparities persist.
• Employment:
  • Unemployment fell to 5.2% in 2013.
  • Vulnerable employment rate is high (30%).
  • Employment elasticity is low (0.23).
  • Unemployment expected to rise to 6.3% by 2019.
• External Sector:
  • Reserves are well above ARA metric.
  • External debt to GDP ratio projected to decline from 73% to 65% by 2019.
  • Real depreciation shock is a major risk to debt sustainability.

References

• Crivelli, E., D. Furceri, and J. Toujas-Bernate, 2012.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Papers and Policy Papers.
• World Bank Country Partnership Strategy.
• OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Kazakhstan 2013.