20150803-Maybank_KERPL-Expecting_quadruple_growth_11页_770kb
报告摘要
Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB) Summary
Core Information
- Share Price: THB36.00
- Target Price: THB36.00 (+0%)
- Market Cap (USD): $1.4B
- ADTV (USD): $3M
- Country: Thailand
- Sector: Hotels
- Rating: HOLD (unchanged)
Key Financial Highlights
- 2Q15 Net Profit Estimate: THB240m (vs THB42m in 2Q14)
- EBITDA Estimate for 2Q15: THB815m (+62% YoY)
- Blended EBITDA Margin (2Q15): 18.2% (+660bps YoY)
- Hotel EBITDA Margin (2Q15): 24% (+200bps YoY)
- Food EBITDA Margin (2Q15): 14% (+370bps YoY)
- Revenue Growth (2Q15): 7% YoY to THB4,635m
- Hotel Revenue Growth (2Q15): +11% YoY
- Food Revenue Growth (2Q15): +1% YoY
Performance Overview
- Occupancy Rate (2Q15): 77% (+7% YoY, -9% QoQ)
- Average Room Rate (2Q15): Flat YoY, -27% QoQ
- RevPAR Growth (2Q15): +11% YoY, +9% YoY excluding FX impact
- SSSG (Same-Store Sales Growth): -1% YoY, -2% QoQ
- TSSG (Total System Sales Growth): +1.3% YoY
- Outlets Expansion: +0.9% YoY (seven new outlets)
Key Concerns
- Food Business: Weakening SSSG and consumer confidence may impact revenue growth and margin in 2H15
- Maldives Hotel: Under renovation, expected to sharply reduce RevPAR in 3Q15
- Currency Impact: THB appreciation in 2Q15 boosted room rates in Maldives
- Seasonal Weakness: All financial and operating performance dropped QoQ
Valuation Metrics
| Metric |
FY13A |
FY14A |
FY15E |
FY16E |
FY17E |
| Revenue (THBm) |
17,096.0 |
17,992.3 |
19,483.4 |
21,227.6 |
23,044.5 |
| EBITDA (THBm) |
3,892.3 |
3,897.2 |
4,399.6 |
4,704.9 |
5,080.7 |
| Core Net Profit (THBm) |
1,321.9 |
1,188.5 |
1,581.3 |
1,737.7 |
1,947.9 |
| Core P/E (x) |
36.8 |
40.9 |
30.7 |
28.0 |
25.0 |
| P/BV (x) |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
| Net Dividend Yield (%) |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
| ROAE (%) |
13.7 |
11.2 |
13.8 |
13.9 |
14.2 |
| ROAA (%) |
4.6 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
12.5 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
12.5 |
11.6 |
| Net Debt/Equity (%) |
102.7 |
87.2 |
80.1 |
73.4 |
66.5 |
2Q15 Results Preview
| Item |
2Q15F (THBm) |
%Chg QoQ |
%Chg YoY |
| Revenue |
4,635 |
-11% |
+7% |
| Hotel Revenue |
1,686 |
-29% |
+11% |
| Food Revenue |
2,628 |
+8% |
+1% |
| Gross Profit |
1,723 |
-24% |
+7% |
| Operating Profit |
365 |
-62% |
+104% |
| EBITDA |
815 |
-42% |
+62% |
| Net Profit |
240 |
-71% |
+476% |
Growth Drivers
- Hotel Recovery: Occupancy rate expansion in Bangkok, higher room rates in upcountry and Maldives
- Food Margin Expansion: Cost control and reduced promotional spending
- Restaurant Outlets Expansion: +0.9% YoY (seven new outlets)
Outlook and Risks
- 2H15 Outlook: Concerns over food business performance due to weak SSSG and potential margin pressure
- Maldives Impact: Renovation expected to sharply reduce RevPAR in 3Q15
- Consumer Trends: Weak domestic consumption and high household debt may hinder food sales growth
Share Price Performance
- 52-Week High/Low (THB): 41.25 / 29.00
- 3-Month Avg Turnover (USDm): 2.9
- Free Float (%): 43.0
- Issued Shares (m): 1,350
- Market Capitalization: THB48.6B
- Major Shareholders:
- Tiang Chirathivat Co. Ltd.: 5.0%
- Suthichai Chirathivat: 4.3%
- Suthikiati Chirathivat: 3.3%
Market Recommendations
| Metric |
Maybank |
Consensus |
% +/- |
| Target Price (THB) |
36.00 |
40.00 |
-10.0 |
| '15 PATMI (THBm) |
1,581 |
1,692 |
-6.5 |
| '16 PATMI (THBm) |
1,738 |
2,023 |
-14.1 |
Summary of Views
- Current Rating: HOLD
- Reasoning: Strong earnings growth in 2Q15 has already been priced in, as the share price rose 13% in 2Q15 and outperformed the SET index by 4% QTD
- Concerns: Food business performance remains a concern due to weak SSSG and potential margin pressure
- Growth Forecast: 2Q15 net profit is expected to be 68% of Maybank's forecast and 65% of the consensus
- Financial Performance: All financial and operating performance fell QoQ due to seasonal weakness
Key Takeaways
- Hotel Recovery: Bangkok occupancy rate recovery and higher room rates in upcountry and Maldives drive hotel performance
- Food Challenges: Weak consumer spending and lower promotions negatively impact food business
- Margin Expansion: Both hotel and food businesses are expected to see margin improvements
- Overall EBITDA Growth: Blended EBITDA margin could increase by 660bps YoY to 18.2%
- Net Profit Surge: Expected to jump from THB42m in 2Q14 to THB240m in 2Q15, representing quadruple growth
- Market Position: Despite strong growth, the downgrade to SSSG is likely due to weak performance in 2H15
Strategic Insights
- Focus Areas: Hotel and food business growth, margin expansion, and cost control
- Key Risks: Continued weakness in SSSG, renovation impact on Maldives hotel, and seasonal effects on operational performance
- Investor Attention: Continued monitoring of consumer confidence and economic outlook for the food business
Contact Information
- Research Offices:
- Thailand: Tim Leelahaphan (66) 2658 6300 ext 1420
- Singapore: Sadiq Currimbhoys (65) 6231 5836
- Malaysia: Wong Chew Hann, CA (603) 2297 8686
- Indonesia: Juniman (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
- Philippines: Luz Lorenzo (63) 28498836
- India: Jigar Shah (91) 22 6623 2632
Additional Notes
- The document provides detailed financial data and analysis for Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB) across various segments and metrics
- It highlights the importance of occupancy rate and room rate in driving hotel revenue
- Food business performance is closely tied to consumer spending and promotional activities
- The share price has shown strong performance in 2Q15, indicating investor confidence in the company's growth potential
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