战略与国际研究中心-Playing-the-Course_-A-Strategy-for-Reshaping-US-Policy-in-Iraq-and-the-Middle-East_60页_634kb

Summary of "Playing the Course: A Strategy for Reshaping US Policy in Iraq and the Middle East" by Anthony H. Cordesman

Core Content

This document outlines a strategic approach for the United States to reshape its policy in Iraq and the broader Middle East. The author, Anthony H. Cordesman, emphasizes that while the US can win military battles, its success in Iraq depends on achieving political and economic stability. The US should not persist in a strategy that is likely to fail, but instead adopt a flexible, pragmatic approach known as "playing the course" — meaning it should be prepared to adapt its actions based on the situation and know when to hold, fold, or run.

Main Views

The US must:

• Define success narrowly and pragmatically, focusing on the establishment of a legitimate, stable, and inclusive Iraqi government that can govern effectively and provide security and economic development.
• Clearly state its intentions to the Iraqi people and the region, ensuring that the US is seen as supporting Iraqi sovereignty rather than imposing its will.
• Avoid the appearance of dominance, by reducing the size and influence of the US mission in Iraq, including relocating the embassy and shrinking the Green Zone.
• Shift from direct control to support and partnership, encouraging the development of Iraqi military and security forces and local governance structures.
• Improve transparency and accountability in all US aid and military operations to prevent perceptions of exploitation and to build trust.
• Adopt a regional strategy that is not solely dependent on the success in Iraq, but also addresses broader Middle East issues such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran, and energy security.

Key Information

1. US Success in Iraq is Uncertain

• The odds of lasting US success in Iraq are at best even, and may be worse.
• US military success is not guaranteed; political and economic success is more uncertain.
• A credible and legitimate Iraqi government is essential for long-term stability.
• The US must aim to transfer power to an Iraqi government by 2006, with Iraqi security forces taking over.

2. Strategic Withdrawal is Necessary

• The US should not "stay the course" if efforts fail.
• It must be prepared to withdraw if an Iraqi government requests it or if the political situation becomes untenable.
• The US must demonstrate its willingness to leave and allow Iraqis to take control.

3. Regional Strategy is Integral

• The US must prioritize the Arab-Israeli conflict to improve its regional standing.
• It should rebuild ties with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the GCC.
• A flexible approach to Iran is needed, recognizing its growing influence.
• The US must restructure its energy policy to reflect its increasing dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
• It should promote political and social reforms that align with regional realities and not US ideological goals.

4. US Policy in Iraq Must be Pragmatic

• The US should refrain from using Iraq as a tool for regional change.
• It should avoid maintaining military bases or dominance in Iraq's political system.
• It must support the development of Iraqi institutions and allow the Iraqi government to manage its own affairs.
• The US should phase out its contracting efforts and transfer aid management to the Iraqi government.

5. Political and Electoral Challenges

• The political process in Iraq is fragile and fraught with risks, especially from Sunni and Shi'ite factions.
• The US must avoid interfering in the political calendar and allow Iraqis to shape their own future.
• The elections and constitution drafting are critical for legitimacy, but they must be inclusive and transparent.
• The US should not dictate the outcome of these processes, but instead support them as a partner.

6. Aid and Governance

• US aid for governance is insufficient and delayed, with only $96 million allocated for "democracy" by November 2004.
• There is a need for greater emphasis on local governance and the development of effective institutions.
• The US must ensure transparency and fairness in its aid programs to avoid accusations of favoritism or exploitation.

Conclusion

The US must "play the course" by adapting its strategy to the realities of the situation in Iraq and the broader Middle East. It should not be bound by an ideological commitment to stay, but instead focus on achieving an achievable and legitimate victory that supports Iraqi sovereignty and stability. This strategy must be tied to a broader regional approach, ensuring that the US is not only a partner in Iraq but also a respected actor in the region. The goal is to improve the chances of success while being prepared to withdraw if necessary, and to avoid the perception of imperialism.