2016年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_Vocational_Schooling_on_Human_Capital_Development_in_Developing_Countries___Evidence_from_China_28页_406kb

Summary of the Document: The Impact of Vocational Schooling on Human Capital Development in Developing Countries: Evidence from China

Core Content

This study investigates the impact of vocational high school (VET) on human capital development in China, focusing on whether VET can serve as an effective substitute for academic high school in building skills and reducing dropout rates. The research is based on longitudinal data from over 10,000 students in two Chinese provinces—Shaanxi and Zhejiang—comparing outcomes between vocational and academic high school students in the computing major.

Main Findings

• Math Skills: Vocational high school students experience absolute reductions in math skills compared to their academic counterparts. This is measured using vertically scaled baseline and follow-up test scores, which allow for a direct comparison of learning gains.
• Computing Skills: Vocational high school students do not show improvement in computing skills relative to academic high school students.
• Dropout Rates: Attending vocational high school is associated with higher dropout rates, particularly among disadvantaged students (low-income or low-ability).
• Heterogeneous Effects: The negative impact of vocational schooling on learning outcomes is more pronounced for students from low-income or low-ability backgrounds, suggesting that selection bias plays a significant role in the observed outcomes.

Key Information

• Sample Size and Selection: The study includes 10,071 students, with 7,644 remaining after trimming for outliers and non-compliance with the HSEE (High School Entrance Examination) requirements.
• Methodology: The researchers employed three analytical approaches:
  • Ordinary Least Squares (OLS): To estimate the basic relationship between VET attendance and student outcomes.
  • Instrumental Variables (IV): To address potential endogeneity and omitted variable bias.
  • Matching Analyses: To compare outcomes between vocational and academic high school students while controlling for observable differences in background characteristics.
• Data Collection:
  • A baseline survey was conducted in October 2011.
  • A follow-up survey (endline) was conducted in May 2012.
  • Both surveys included standardized tests for computing and math skills, normalized into z-scores.
  • The study also collected student background characteristics, including gender, age, urban/rural status, migration history, family assets, and parental education.
• Curriculum Overview:
  • Vocational high schools focus on mid-level skills, particularly in computing, with the computing major being the most popular.
  • In the first year, students spend equal time on academic and computing skills; in the second year, they focus more on computing; and in the third year, they participate in internships.
  • Academic high schools are focused on general academic skills necessary for higher education, with only about 10% of time spent on non-academic subjects.
• Selection Bias and Control Measures:
  • The study controls for selection bias by trimming students with extreme baseline characteristics or who did not take the HSEE.
  • The attrition rate in the analytical sample was low, but the researchers accounted for it using Lee Bounds in robustness checks.
  • The imbalances in baseline characteristics between vocational and academic students are acknowledged, but they are not found to bias the results significantly.

Policy Context

• China's VET Expansion: Between 2001 and 2011, vocational high school enrollments increased from 11.7 to 22.1 million students, with annual investments exceeding 21 billion USD.
• Policy Rationale: VET is promoted as a means to improve labor market readiness and reduce educational inequality, especially for disadvantaged students.
• Financial Support: Policymakers have provided financial aid to all vocational high school students and waived tuition for low-income students.

Conclusion

The study concludes that the rapid expansion of vocational schooling in China, as a substitute for academic schooling, may have detrimental effects on human capital development. Vocational high school students, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds, tend to underperform in math skills and are more likely to drop out. While vocational schools aim to provide practical skills, the evidence suggests that they may fail to meet the expectations of building both specific and general skills necessary for long-term economic development and job stability. The findings highlight the importance of rigorous evaluation and policy refinement in the context of vocational education in developing countries.

Key Authors and Funding

• Authors: Prashant Loyalka, Xiaoting Huang, Linxiu Zhang, Jianguo Wei, Hongmei Yi, Yingquan Song, Yaojiang Shi, and James Chu.
• Funding: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, 3ie, and the Ford Foundation.

JEL Codes

• I25: Education: General
• J24: Labor Economics: Education
• O15: Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Capital; Labor Force; Education

References

• The study draws on longitudinal data and standardized testing to ensure validity and comparability.
• It references PISA data and earlier studies on VET in Indonesia, highlighting the need for more comprehensive data in developing countries.

Methodological Notes

• The study avoids a reading test due to concerns over survey duration and instructional time.
• Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is used to calculate a family asset value metric to identify low-income students.
• Robustness tests confirm the validity of the family wealth metric and the overall findings.

Overall Implication

The study implies that policy decisions to expand vocational schooling may not be effective in building human capital unless accompanied by improvements in curriculum design and better support systems for students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds.