哥伦比亚经济展望-英-59页_5mb

Colombia Economic Outlook Summary – October 2023

Global Environment and Financial Markets

• Global growth for Colombia's trading partners is expected to slow in 2024, constraining Colombia's recovery potential.
• Financial markets have appreciated recently, but persistent inflation and tight labor markets may keep central banks hawkish.
• Global GDP growth is projected at 3.5% in 2022, declining to 2.9% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024.
• Risks include sharper China deceleration, geopolitical tensions, and US presidential elections.

Growth and Employment

• GDP growth is decelerating, with private consumption and investment moderating.
• Employment remains robust, driven by services, but job creation is expected to slow in 2023-2024.
• Public and social services, and professional activities, are key employment drivers.
• Output gap is turning negative in 2023-2024, indicating underutilization of capacity.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation is easing due to base effects, supply improvements, and declining commodity prices, but core inflation remains sticky.
• Headline inflation forecast at 9.7% by end-2023, declining to 5.4% by end-2024.
• Central bank likely to start rate cuts in late 2023, aiming for 12.5% close-out, but timing is uncertain.
• Inflation risks include El Niño effects, input shortages, and wage increases.

Structural Balances and Exchange Rate

• Fiscal deficit is worsening due to higher current expenditure, with public debt rising.
• External deficit is expected to deteriorate as domestic demand recovers, putting downward pressure on the exchange rate.
• Colombian peso may depreciate further in 2024, although high volatility persists due to economic imbalances and political uncertainty.

Closing Remarks

• Economic recovery is gradual; recommendations include boosting private investment, improving public efficiency, and targeting counter-cyclical sectors like housing and infrastructure.
• Key risks include fiscal and external imbalances, trade tensions, and slower global growth.
• Macroeconomic indicators point to a modest recovery, but upside risks such as inflation persistence and policy uncertainty could challenge progress.