20130910-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_962kb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 10 September 2013

Core Content

• Market Overview: The global and Hong Kong markets experienced positive movements, driven by eased Middle East tensions, China's upbeat economic data, and the anticipation of Japan's potential growth due to hosting the 2020 Olympics.
• Stock Performance:
  • Fosun (656.HK): The stock closed at HK$6.02, with a target of HK$6.70 and a stop-loss at HK$5.40. Positive factors include strong investment strategies and upside potential from its equity interest in Alibaba's Cainiao Network.
  • CSR (1766.HK): The stock closed at HK$5.70, with a target of HK$6.30 and a stop-loss at HK$5.20. Positive factors include a large-scale tender for motor coaches, which could lead to a market rally.
• Equity Indices:
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,750, up 0.6%, with a 0.4% year-to-date gain.
  • HSCEI: Closed at 10,528, up 1.9%, with a -7.9% year-to-date performance.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Closed at 15,063, up 0.9%, with a 14.9% year-to-date gain.
  • NASDAQ: Closed at 3,706, up 1.3%, with a 22.7% year-to-date gain.
  • Nikkei 225: Closed at 14,205, up 0.9%, with a 37.9% year-to-date gain.
  • Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,212, up 3.4%, with a -2.5% year-to-date performance.
• Market Turnover:
  • The Hong Kong market turnover rose to HK$67.1bn, indicating increased trading activity.
• ETF Performance:
  • CSOP A50 (2822.HK): Closed at HK$9.83, up 4.0% in one day and 6.0% in five days.
  • ChinaAMC CSI 300 (3188.HK): Closed at HK$30.5, up 2.7% in one day and 3.6% in five days.
  • X iShares FTSE A50 (2823.HK): Closed at HK$10, up 3.5% in one day and 5.3% in five days.
  • SPDR Gold Trust (2840.HK): Closed at HK$1,038, up 1.3% in one day and -0.6% in five days.
• Economic Data and Events:
  • China: New Yuan Loans for August were 720.3B, up from 699.9B. CPI rose 2.6% yoy, while PPI declined 1.6% yoy but bounced back 0.1% mom.
  • United States: Consumer credit rose by US$10.4bn in July, hitting a record high of US$2.85bn. PPI rose 0.1% mom.
  • Japan: Money Stock M2 YoY was reported, with a prior value of 3.7%.
• Upcoming Interim Results:
  • ESPRIT Holdings (330.HK): Expected to report an interim loss of HK$320mn.
• Market Trends:
  • Fosun: Formed a short-term uptrend, suggesting potential for further gains.
  • CSR: Formed a steeper uptrend after a recent consolidation, indicating possible further rally.

Key Highlights

• Positive Factors:
  • Fosun's investment strategies and equity interest in Cainiao Network provide upside potential.
  • CSR's large-scale tender for motor coaches is expected to support its share price.
• Performance of Financials:
  • Chinese financials rallied, with notable gains in China Taipang, Minsheng Bank, and others.
• Sector Performance:
  • Local telecom operators, such as SmarTone, saw significant gains due to iPhone launch expectations.
  • Food producers, like Tingyi and Uni-President, also experienced strong performance.
  • Wind power stocks were hit by potential subsidy cuts, with HN Renewables falling ~7%.
• Market Turnover:
  • Increased turnover indicates active trading, especially in the Main Board.
• ETF Trends:
  • Most ETFs showed positive movement, with notable gains in the CSI 300 and A50 indices.
• Energy and Raw Material Prices:
  • New York crude oil futures fell to US$109.74/bbl.
  • Gold futures closed at US$1,386.7/oz, showing a slight increase.
• A-H Share Premium:
  • Several companies showed significant premiums in their A-shares compared to H-shares, such as Minsheng Bank and China Coal.

Key Information

• Market Sentiment: Positive due to geopolitical easing and economic data improvements.
• Investment Recommendations:
  • Fosun: Buy at HK$5.94, targeting HK$6.70, with a stop-loss at HK$5.80.
  • CSR: Buy now, targeting HK$6.30, with a stop-loss at HK$5.20.
• Disclosure:
  • Analysts have no financial interests in the listed companies covered in the report.
  • Views expressed reflect personal opinions and are influenced by SHKF's profitability.

Summary of Key Figures

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,750, up 0.6%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 10,528, up 1.9%.
• Dow Jones: Closed at 15,063, up 140 points.
• NASDAQ: Closed at 3,706, up 46 points.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 14,205, up 2.5%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,212, up 3.4%.

Additional Information

• Exchange Rates: USD/HKD at 7.7543, EUR/USD at 1.3253, and others.
• Treasury Yields: U.S. 2-year yield at 0.4467%, 10-year at 2.9250%, and 30-year at 3.8639%.
• Contact Information:
  • Address: 42/F, The Lee Gardens, 33 Hysan Avenue, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong
  • Phone: (852) 3920 2888
  • Fax: (852) 3920 2789
  • Web: www.shkfg.com

Analysts

• Hannah Li, CAIA
• Minnie Li

Disclosure

• Research Analyst Certification: Views expressed reflect personal opinions and are influenced by SHKF's profitability.
• Conflicts of Interest: No financial interests in listed corporations, and no relevant relationships with them.