20150608-大华银行-Weekly_FX_Technical_Insights_17页_2mb

Weekly FX Technical Insights Summary (08 - 12 June 2015)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive technical analysis of major FX pairs for the week of 08 - 12 June 2015. It outlines the current market conditions, key data releases, central bank events, and forecasts for the coming week. The analysis is based on recent economic data, central bank policies, and market sentiment.

Key FX Pairs and Outlooks

EUR/USD

• Current Level: 1.1090
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.1150, 1.1080
• Resistance Levels: 1.1300, 1.1379
• Key Factors:
  • EUR/USD is trading near 1.1100 after a sharp drop from the previous high of 1.1380.
  • The situation in Greece is a major driver.
  • The EU leader's summit on Wednesday will be closely watched.
  • The June Sentix investor sentiment survey and Q1 GDP data are key data releases.

GBP/USD

• Current Level: 1.5265
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.5170, 1.5050
• Resistance Levels: 1.5370, 1.5440
• Key Factors:
  • GBP weakness is part of a broader sidewalk range.
  • Key events include Mansion House speeches and the OBR's Fiscal Sustainability Report.
  • The Bank Rate remains at 0.50%.

AUD/USD

• Current Level: 0.7625
• Outlook: Bearish
• Support Levels: 0.7598, 0.7535
• Resistance Levels: 0.7740, 0.7790
• Key Factors:
  • The AUD/USD fell sharply after a weak trade report.
  • A break below 0.7595 could lead to a deeper down move.
  • Key data releases include the NAB business survey and May employment figures.
  • Externally, Chinese data may influence AUD.

NZD/USD

• Current Level: 0.7050
• Outlook: Bearish
• Support Levels: 0.7020, 0.6950
• Resistance Levels: 0.7100, 0.7150
• Key Factors:
  • The RBNZ is expected to ease policy this week.
  • A rate cut is likely to be characterized as a measured response to inflation and exchange rate weakness.
  • The RBNZ has shown a shift to an easing bias.

USD/JPY

• Current Level: 125.35
• Outlook: Bullish
• Support Levels: 125.05, 124.50
• Resistance Levels: 126.00, 126.80
• Key Factors:
  • The USD is in a bullish phase after breaking above 120.50.
  • The current rally is expected to extend to 126.80.
  • The BOJ meeting on 19 June is a key event.

USD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.3590
• Outlook: Bullish
• Support Levels: 1.3510, 1.3470
• Resistance Levels: 1.3640, 1.3750
• Key Factors:
  • USD rallied to 1.3570/75, with further support to 1.3640.
  • The MAS meeting in October 2015 is a key event.
  • The NEER is currently at 0.15% above the midpoint.

USD/MYR

• Current Level: 3.7570
• Outlook: Bullish
• Support Levels: 3.7290, 3.7000
• Resistance Levels: 3.7800, 3.8000
• Key Factors:
  • The MYR depreciated by 1.4% against USD.
  • A Fitch rating downgrade is a possibility.
  • Chinese data may influence the MYR.

USD/CNH

• Current Level: 6.2085
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 6.2040, 6.1980
• Resistance Levels: 6.2160, 6.2240
• Key Factors:
  • The RMB dropped 0.08% for the week.
  • The RMB is expected to trade within a broad range of 6.1980/6.2160.
  • A clear break above 6.2160 would signal a sustained USD rally.

EUR/SGD

• Current Level: 1.4700
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.4960, 1.4900
• Resistance Levels: 1.5200, 1.5285
• Key Factors:
  • EUR/SGD is in a mixed neutral range.
  • A broad sidewalk range of 1.4900/1.5200 is expected for the next 1-2 weeks.

GBP/SGD

• Current Level: 2.0750
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 2.0620, 2.0495
• Resistance Levels: 2.0820, 2.0960
• Key Factors:
  • GBP/SGD is expected to trade in a broad range.
  • The outlook remains unclear, and a neutral view is preferred.

AUD/SGD

• Current Level: 1.0365
• Outlook: Neutral
• Support Levels: 1.0280, 1.0240
• Resistance Levels: 1.0450, 1.0500
• Key Factors:
  • A test of the year's low at 1.0240 is not ruled out.
  • The pair is more likely to trade within a broad range of 1.0240/1.0500.

JPY/SGD

• Current Level: 1.0835
• Outlook: Bearish
• Support Levels: 1.0770, 1.0700
• Resistance Levels: 1.0865, 1.0900
• Key Factors:
  • JPY is still edging lower, but downward momentum is waning.
  • A break below 1.0900 could lead to a move to 1.0700.
  • The pair is expected to trade within a broad range.

Key Data Releases

• Tuesday:
  • US: Wholesale Inventories (April)
  • UK: April Trade Data
  • Australia: NAB Business Survey (May)
  • Singapore: 3Q Manpower Survey
• Wednesday:
  • US: Budget Statement (May)
  • UK: Industrial Production (April), RICS Housing Survey (April)
  • Germany: May Employment Data
  • China: Consumer and Producer Price Reports (May)
• Thursday:
  • US: Retail Sales, Import Prices, Jobless Claims (Week Ending 6 June)
  • UK: April Industrial Production
  • Australia: May Employment Data
  • China: May Trade, Industrial Production, and Fixed Assets Investment Data
  • Malaysia: April Industrial Production
• Friday:
  • US: Nonfarm Payrolls (May), PCE Price Index (May)
  • China: May Trade Data
  • Malaysia: April Trade Balance

Key Central Bank Events

• ECB:
  • Several speakers will address the public this week.
• RBA:
  • Policy meeting on 7 July 2015.
• RBNZ:
  • Policy meeting on 11 June 2015.
• BOJ:
  • Meeting on 19 June 2015.
• BOE:
  • Meeting on 9 July 2015.

Summary of Views for the Week

Conclusion

The week ahead is marked by mixed outlooks for various FX pairs, influenced by economic data releases and central bank actions. The US nonfarm payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected results, potentially influencing the Fed's policy decisions. The EUR/USD is expected to trade within a range, while GBP/USD and AUD/USD face bearish pressure. The USD is on a bullish trajectory, with key targets for USD/JPY and USD/MYR. The document also highlights the importance of upcoming data releases and central bank meetings in shaping the market's direction.