20150706-大华银行-Weekly_FX_Technical_Insights_17页_2mb

Weekly FX Technical Insights Summary (06 - 10 July 2015)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market for the week of 6-10 July 2015, focusing on key currency pairs and their expected movements based on economic data, geopolitical events, and central bank actions. The Greek referendum outcome is a major factor influencing market sentiment, with risk aversion persisting as the situation remains unresolved. The US data release schedule is also discussed, with the main focus on the June ISM non-manufacturing survey and the May trade balance data. Additionally, the document outlines UOB's FX forecasts and technical levels for various pairs.

Main Currency Pairs and Outlooks

EUR/USD

• Current Price: 1.1025
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.0915, 1.0820
  • Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1280
• Key Event: ECB Governing Council decision on Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.09
  • End 4Q15: 1.10
  • End 1Q16: 1.12
  • End 2Q16: 1.12

GBP/USD

• Current Price: 1.5555
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.5440, 1.5320
  • Resistance: 1.5650, 1.5740
• Key Events:
  • Chancellor Osborne's post-election budget on Wednesday.
  • BoE meeting on Thursday.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.60
  • End 4Q15: 1.62
  • End 1Q16: 1.64
  • End 2Q16: 1.67

AUD/USD

• Current Price: 0.7510
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 0.7585, 0.7535
  • Resistance: 0.7680, 0.7745
• Key Event: RBA meeting on Tuesday, with expectations of a rate cut or unchanged rate.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 0.75
  • End 4Q15: 0.74
  • End 1Q16: 0.74
  • End 2Q16: 0.73

NZD/USD

• Current Price: 0.6690
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 0.6645, 0.6620
  • Resistance: 0.6710, 0.6770
• Key Event: QSBO business survey on Tuesday and Electronic Card Transactions survey on Thursday.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 0.66
  • End 4Q15: 0.64
  • End 1Q16: 0.63
  • End 2Q16: 0.62

USD/SGD

• Current Price: 1.3505
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.3440, 1.3340
  • Resistance: 1.3565, 1.3635
• Key Event: Advance estimates of Singapore's 2Q2015 GDP are expected between 7 and 14 July.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.36
  • End 4Q15: 1.38
  • End 1Q16: 1.40
  • End 2Q16: 1.39

USD/MYR

• Current Price: 3.8040
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 3.7850, 3.7755
  • Resistance: 3.8300, 3.8500
• Key Event: Fitch Ratings' decision to maintain Malaysia's sovereign rating unchanged.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 3.78
  • End 4Q15: 3.80
  • End 1Q16: 3.80
  • End 2Q16: 3.77

USD/THB

• Current Price: 33.82
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 33.74, 33.71
  • Resistance: 33.90, 33.95
• Key Event: Industrial production and trade balance data in May.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 33.5
  • End 4Q15: 34.3
  • End 1Q16: 34.6
  • End 2Q16: 34.3

USD/CNY

• Current Price: 6.2080
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 6.2040, 6.2000
  • Resistance: 6.2190, 6.2240
• Key Event: China's CPI and PPI data for June, as well as the release of 2Q15 GDP.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 6.23
  • End 4Q15: 6.20
  • End 1Q16: 6.19
  • End 2Q16: 6.17

EUR/SGD

• Current Price: 1.4910
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.4850, 1.4760
  • Resistance: 1.4960, 1.5000
• Key Event: ECB's decision on ELA and political discussions between Germany and France.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.49
  • End 4Q15: 1.50
  • End 1Q16: 1.52
  • End 2Q16: 1.52

GBP/SGD

• Current Price: 2.1030
• Outlook: Neutral
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 2.0950, 2.0860
  • Resistance: 2.1090, 2.1190
• Key Event: BoE meeting and GBP/USD's post-referendum performance.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 2.10
  • End 4Q15: 2.11
  • End 1Q16: 2.13
  • End 2Q16: 2.14

AUD/SGD

• Current Price: 1.0115
• Outlook: Bearish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.0000, 0.9920
  • Resistance: 1.0160, 1.0240
• Key Event: RBA meeting and weak AUD performance.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.01
  • End 4Q15: 1.00
  • End 1Q16: 0.99
  • End 2Q16: 0.98

JPY/SGD

• Current Price: 1.1040
• Outlook: Bullish
• Key Levels:
  • Support: 1.0970, 1.0920
  • Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1185
• Key Event: Consumer spending data and potential rebound in JPY.
• UOB Forecast:
  • End 3Q15: 1.11
  • End 4Q15: 1.12
  • End 1Q16: 1.13
  • End 2Q16: 1.13

Key Events and Market Impact

• Greek Referendum: Increased risk aversion, with potential for a "Grexit" and ECB's ELA decision on 7 July being a critical factor.
• US Data Releases: Lightweight, with key data including June ISM non-manufacturing survey, May trade balance, and June labor market conditions.
• Malaysia's USD/MYR: Short-lived reprieve due to political and economic concerns, including allegations involving 1MDB funds.
• China's USD/CNY: Continued weak performance in equity markets, with CPI and PPI data expected to influence the currency.
• Singapore's USD/SGD: Weak GDP growth forecast for 2Q15 (1.8% y/y), with focus on economic data and trade-weighted index.

Conclusion

The week is dominated by the Greek situation, with the ECB's decision on Emergency Lending Assistance (ELA) and political discussions between France and Germany as critical factors. The US data release schedule is relatively light, with the June ISM non-manufacturing survey and May trade balance being the main points of focus. In the Asia-Pacific region, the AUD and NZD face continued downward pressure, while the USD/SGD and USD/MYR are expected to see bullish trends. China's economic data and the outlook for the RMB are also important for FX movement. Overall, the market is expected to remain volatile, with key support and resistance levels determining the direction of major currency pairs.