2010年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bhutan_2页_242kb

报告摘要

Bhutan—World Bank Assessment Summary (September 7, 2010)

Core Content Overview

This assessment letter from the World Bank provides an overview of Bhutan's economic performance and outlook during the period of the global financial crisis, focusing on growth, fiscal and monetary policy, banking sector stability, and future priorities.

Economic Performance and Outlook

Growth Resilience: Bhutan's economy showed resilience to the global financial crisis, with GDP growth estimated at 5.5% in 2008/09. The outlook remains positive, with projections of 6-7% growth for 2009/10 and further growth in the medium term, primarily driven by the hydropower sector.
Inflation Trends: Inflation rose in line with pressures from India, reaching 5.75% in Q1 2010, but remains manageable.
Rupee Reserves: The level of rupee reserves is highly volatile due to the hydropower cycle, but credit lines with India (Rs 7 billion or 4.5 months of imports) provide a safeguard. Convertible currency reserves are stable at US$825 million (equivalent to 16 months of imports) as a result of aid flows, which have created a balance of payments surplus and offset trade deficits.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Considerations

Fiscal Expansion: Increased development spending to meet the goals of the 10th Five Year Plan, combined with recent wage increases, has led to a rising fiscal deficit. Preliminary estimates indicate a deficit of 6.5% of GDP in 2009/10, with similar levels expected in 2010/11.
Overheating Risks: The fiscal expansion poses risks of economic overheating. Additionally, high public debt levels (70% of GDP) and potential shortfalls in aid-based foreign financing due to weak global recovery could jeopardize public debt sustainability.
Monetary Policy: Maintaining monetary policy consistent with the rupee peg and improving liquidity management are essential for economic stability. The increasing yield spread between India and Bhutan, due to a decline in Bhutan's T-bill rate relative to Indian bills, is a concern, especially with rising imported inflationary pressures.
Excess Liquidity: Intensified monetary operations are required to address the high level of excess liquidity, which risks a sharp increase in credit growth.

Banking Sector and Financial Stability

Banking Sector Indicators: Overall, banking sector indicators are sound. The capital adequacy ratio of banks was 15% at the end of 2009, and the gross non-performing loans ratio fell to 6% from 7.5% in 2009, indicating improved asset quality.
Credit Growth: Credit growth is slowing but remains strong at 18% in the year to March 2010. Excess liquidity in banks increased sharply in 2009, with the ratio to total assets jumping from 7% in June to 21% in December.
New Banks and Competition: The entry of two new banks in 2010 has introduced much-needed competition in the sector, which could help reduce excess liquidity. However, this also necessitates enhanced supervision of risk management practices and financial disclosure to ensure continued stability.
Private Sector Development: Continued efforts to strengthen private sector development are a key priority. This includes advancing donor-supported SME-lending schemes and developing a commercial paper market to diversify and improve the financing options available to the private sector.