20111231-IEA-The_Impact_of_Wind_Power_on_European_Natural_Gas_Markets_54页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of "The Impact of Wind Power on European Natural Gas Markets"

Core Content

This working paper by the International Energy Agency (IEA) explores the impact of an increasing wind power market share on the characteristics of residual demand and the broader implications for natural gas markets in Europe.

Main Viewpoints

Wind Power Growth: Over the past ten years, wind power capacity globally has increased more than sevenfold, from 24 GW in 2001 to nearly 197 GW in 2010. The IEA projects that this growth will continue, with wind power expected to reach over 400% of current levels by 2035 under the New Policies Scenario.
Europe's Leadership: Europe (EU27) currently holds the highest wind market share in the world, with 9.6% of total installed power capacity in 2010. In a normal wind year, this capacity would meet 5.3% of total electricity demand. Wind is expected to increase its market share to 16% under the Current Policies Scenario and to 23% under the 450 Scenario by 2035.
Wind Characteristics: Wind power is characterized by low capacity factors and high variability. These features require more system flexibility in electricity networks to manage supply and demand imbalances.
Natural Gas as a Flexible Fuel: Natural gas is considered the most suitable fuel for supporting wind power due to its relatively low investment costs, fast ramping rates, and short start-up times. It provides a flexible response to fluctuations in wind output and electricity demand.
Impact on Residual Demand: As wind power increases, the residual demand (electricity demand minus wind production) becomes more variable and spread out. This affects the utilization of transport capacity and increases the need for flexible gas supply mechanisms.
Flexibility in Gas Markets: The paper highlights the importance of flexibility in gas markets, including storage, LNG regasification, and flexible supply contracts, to accommodate the growing variability and unpredictability of residual demand.

Key Information

Wind Power in Different Regions

Worldwide: Wind power capacity increased from 24 GW in 2001 to nearly 197 GW in 2010. In 2010, 37.6 GW of new capacity was added, surpassing only the previous year's growth.
Europe: Holds the largest share of wind power in total electricity generation. By the end of 2010, the EU27 had 84 GW of installed wind capacity.
North America: The United States was the largest wind power country until 2009, when China surpassed it. In 2010, the US had 40 GW of installed capacity.
Asia: China leads in wind power capacity, accounting for 73% of all Asian wind capacity in 2010. However, the actual electricity fed into the grid is still lower than installed capacity due to grid connection issues.

Technical and Economic Characteristics of Generation Technologies

Flexibility: Natural gas provides the highest flexibility in terms of ramping rate, start-up time, and cost, making it ideal for supporting variable wind output.
Costs: Natural gas has lower start-up costs and short-term marginal costs compared to coal and nuclear, which have higher start-up costs and longer start-up times.
Capacity Factor: The capacity factor of gas-fired generation is higher than that of wind, making it more economically viable for meeting demand when wind output is low.

Impact on Natural Gas Markets

Residual Demand: Wind power increases the variability and spread of residual demand, which in turn affects gas demand patterns.
Spot Market: The need for short-term flexibility increases, particularly on an hourly basis, due to the unpredictability of wind output.
Transport Costs: Lower utilization of transport capacity to gas-fired plants increases transport costs.
Storage Requirements: Increased variability and spread in demand lead to a higher need for gas storage and LNG regasification capacity, which may be costly.

Structure of the Paper

Executive Summary: Outlines the main findings and discusses the impact of wind power on residual demand and natural gas markets.
Introduction: Sets the context of wind power growth and its implications for energy systems.
Background: Details the global and regional growth of wind power and its characteristics.
Wind in the World: Discusses the global spread of wind power and the countries with the highest capacity.
Europe: Focuses on the EU27's wind power capacity and its expected growth.
North America: Describes the US wind power landscape and its current market share.
Asia: Highlights China's dominance in wind power and its challenges with grid integration.
Future Wind Generation Capacity: Projects wind power growth up to 2035 under different IEA scenarios.
Expected Development of Wind Capacity in Europe: Details the EU27's wind targets and their implications for the energy mix.
Wind as a Source of Electricity: Analyzes the variability and predictability of wind output.
Managing Variability: Discusses supply-side response mechanisms and the role of natural gas.
The Effect of Wind Power on Gas Markets: Explores the interaction between wind output and gas demand, and the resulting changes in gas market dynamics.
Abbreviations and Acronyms: Provides definitions for key terms used in the paper.
References: Lists the sources and studies cited in the analysis.
List of Figures and Tables: Includes visual data and tables that support the analysis.

Conclusion

The increasing wind market share in Europe is expected to significantly alter the characteristics of residual demand and, consequently, the demand for natural gas in the power sector. While natural gas is well-suited to provide flexibility, the growing variability and unpredictability of demand may lead to increased costs and the need for more flexible supply mechanisms. Despite the challenges, natural gas is likely to remain a key player in supporting the integration of wind power into the European energy mix.

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