20140519-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_401kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 19 May 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of financial performance and analyst views across various sectors in the Philippine market, including banks, conglomerates, cement, mining, and property. It highlights key financial metrics, earnings, and forecasts for selected companies, along with market insights and recommendations.

Main Points

Financial Highlights

PSEi: Closed at 6,817.71, down 0.46%.
Turnover (PHPm): Increased to 10,007.50, up 27.37%.
PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at 66.88, up 1.30%.
PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at 2,926.00, up 1.51%.
PHP/USD rate: 43.77, up 0.04%.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento

Top Idea

Consumer Sector: Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC)

Recommendation: Reiterate BUY with a revised target price of PHP210.
Performance: 1Q14 results were better than expected, with 15.2% revenue growth, 17.7% operating income increase, and 20.4% net income jump to PHP1.078b.
Key Metrics:
- Systemwide sales: PHP27.3b (+14.6%)
- Net income: PHP1.078b (+20.4%)
- 55 stores opened, 14 closed.
- Total stores at end of Q1: 2,805 (+5.8% YoY).
Forecast Update: Net income forecast for 2014F raised to PHP5.6b (+7.2%), 2015F to PHP6.6b (+6.8%).
Margin Expansion: Operating profit margin increased by 14 bps.

Market Talk

Banks

PNB: 1Q14 net income at PHP1.34b, down 52.6% YoY, ROE at 6.3%. Trading gains dropped 92.7%, but net interest income surged 70% YoY.
CHIB: 1Q14 net income at PHP1.2b, down 35% YoY. Loans grew 32% to PHP231b, NIM at 3.13%.
PBB: 1Q14 net income at PHP113m, down 81% YoY. Core lending business strong with 45% loan growth and NIM of 4.51%.

Conglomerates

FPH: 1Q14 net income at PHP1.03b, down 42% YoY. Consolidated revenues increased 5% to PHP23.21b.
LPZ: 1Q14 net income at PHP877m, down 12% YoY. FPH's earnings decline partially offset by ABS-CBN's growth.
ANS: 1Q14 net income at PHP1.09b, up 94% YoY, driven by gains on investments.

Cement

LRI: 1Q14 net income at PHP1.05b, up 3.5%. Sales increased 4% to PHP6.1b, but underperformed industry volume growth.

Mining

AT: 1Q14 net income at PHP118m, down 79% YoY due to lower copper prices. Expansion efforts are showing positive signs.
MARC: Responded to suspension order by showing compliance with MGB requirements, including submitting reports and paying occupation fees.

Property

Office Space Vacancy: Tightened in Metro Manila's commercial districts, with rental rates increasing.
Vacancy Rate: 2.58% in Q1, down 1.21ppts QoQ and 0.89ppts YoY.
Lease Rates: Increased in Makati City, Filinvest Corporate City, and Ortigas.

The Week Ahead

19 May: Aboitiz Power Corp, Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc.
20 May: Filipino Fund, Inc., Petron Corporation, Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation, Filinvest Land Inc.
Annual Stockholder's Meeting: Multiple companies are set to hold meetings.
Analysts and Investors' Briefing: Scheduled for the week ahead.

Key Data Summary (JFC)

Metric	1Q13 (PHPm)	1Q14 (PHPm)	YoY Change (%)
Systemwide Sales	23,837	27,305	14.5
Revenues	18,155	20,914	15.2
Sales	17,224	19,864	15.3
Royalties and Franchise Fees	931	1,050	12.8
Net Income	895	1,078	20.4
EPS Growth (%)	4.9	5.2	20.5
Net Margin (%)	5.9	6.2	6.8

Forecast Changes (JFC)

Metric	Old 2014F (PHPm)	Revised 2014F (PHPm)	Change (%)	Old 2015F (PHPm)	Revised 2015F (PHPm)	Change (%)
Revenues	89,315	90,947	1.8	99,931	101,290	6.8
Net Income	5,250	5,629	7.2	6,182	6,605	6.8

Valuation Table (as of 16 May 2014)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	Net Margin (%)	P/BV (x)	ROE (%)
JFC	180.00	210.00	17	BUY	5,629	20.5	34.2	5.2	7.3	23.0
PNB	91.00	111.00	22	BUY	5,432	4.6	1.8	1.6	1.8	13.2
PBB	24.00	29.00	21	BUY	925	13.7	2.0	1.6	2.0	13.3
CHIB	55.50	60.00	8	HOLD	5,479	3.45	1.8	1.2	2.2	10.9
BDO	88.55	93.50	6	HOLD	22,319	12.8	1.0	1.3	1.6	11.4
BPI	89.00	93.50	5	HOLD	20,765	12.4	1.0	1.3	1.6	11.4
LRI	124.30	141.00	13	BUY	5,629	20.5	34.2	5.2	7.3	23.0

Summary

The report highlights Jollibee Foods Corp (JFC) as a key player in the consumer sector, with strong Q1 performance and a revised BUY recommendation.
Banks like PNB and PBB reported mixed results, with PNB showing improvement in net interest income and PBB experiencing a significant drop due to treasury losses.
Conglomerates such as FPH and ANS had notable changes in net income, with ANS showing a strong positive surprise.
In mining, AT is beginning to see expansion benefits, while MARC is addressing operational issues.
Property sector saw a tightening of office space vacancy rates and increased rental rates in key areas of Metro Manila.
The week ahead includes several company announcements and stockholder meetings.