IMF-金融科技正在吃银行的午餐吗？（英）-2023.11-64页_1mb

Main Conclusion: The study concludes that FinTech presence negatively impacts the profitability of traditional financial institutions (FIs), driven primarily by reduced interest income and increased operational costs, supporting the substitution hypothesis.

Impact on Profitability:

• FinTech competition reduces profitability by lowering interest income and increasing operational costs, which incumbents have not fully offset through diversification into non-interest income streams.
• Non-interest income saw a small increase (+0.01 points on average), but this did not fully counteract the profit declines.

FinTech Business Models:

• P2P Lending: Positively affects non-interest income for commercial banks but harms profitability for cooperative banks.
• Balance Sheet Lending: Negatively impacts profitability across all institutions.

Role of Regulation:

• Stronger regulatory frameworks in certain countries help incumbents benefit from FinTech growth without uneven competitive practices, promoting a level playing field.

Policy Implications:

• Regulators should balance fostering innovation with ensuring stability, considering country-specific conditions and the role of well-designed regulations.