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STM3 Model Summary: School Day vs Work Day Travel

Core Content

This document outlines the modifications made to the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (STM3) to reflect travel patterns on an average school day instead of an average workday. The change was requested by the Bureau of Transport Statistics (BTS) of Transport for New South Wales to better capture peak travel demand, particularly for public transport. The model was initially developed by Hague Consulting Group in 1997, with subsequent stages of development involving RAND Europe and Halcrow. The most recent update, STM3, was implemented in 2009, and the school day modification was completed in late 2013, though the report was published in 2015.

The main focus of the modification was to adjust the frequency models, as the factors influencing mode and destination choice are believed to remain relatively stable between school and non-school days. This decision was based on the premise that school travel patterns, while different in frequency, do not significantly alter the underlying decision-making factors for mode and destination.

Main Points

• Purpose of Modification: The STM3 model was adjusted to reflect school day travel patterns to better represent peak demand.
• Data Basis: The model was updated using more recent travel behavior data to ensure it reflects current conditions.
• Scope of Changes: Only frequency models were re-estimated; mode-destination models remained unchanged.
• Impact on Parameters: Changes in frequency models affected parameter magnitudes, particularly for education-related travel.
• Validation: The updated model was validated against expanded HTS (Household Travel Survey) data to ensure accuracy.

Key Information

Changes in Tour Frequency Rates

Changes in NHB Tour Rates

Changes in Frequency Model Parameters

• Zero/One-plus Sub-model:

  • The constant and accessibility (Ism) parameters showed changes in magnitude and significance.
  • The male constant increased, suggesting mothers reduce work tour rates more than fathers during school term.
  • The accessibility parameter decreased in magnitude for some models, indicating less variation in tour frequency on school days.

• Stop/Go Sub-model:

  • The constant (stopASC) and accessibility (Ismpl) parameters were adjusted, with varying impacts depending on the travel purpose.
  • For primary education, the accessibility parameter showed a significant increase in magnitude, reflecting a stronger effect.
  • For tertiary education, the accessibility parameter decreased in magnitude, suggesting a weaker effect.
  • For shopping, the parameter magnitudes showed only modest changes.

Conclusion

The transition from workday to school day definitions in the STM3 model has had a measurable impact on the frequency of travel, particularly for education-related purposes. While the mode-destination models remained unchanged, the frequency models were re-estimated to better reflect the actual travel patterns on school days. This adjustment aims to improve the model's accuracy in capturing peak demand and enhancing public transport planning in Sydney.