2016年-数据局_麦肯锡：Automotiverevolutionperspectivetowards2030_20页_2mb

Automotive Revolution – Perspective Towards 2030 Summary

Core Content

The document "Automotive Revolution – Perspective Towards 2030" outlines the transformative impact of four disruptive technology-driven trends on the automotive industry: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. These trends are expected to reshape the industry significantly over the next 15 years, altering traditional revenue models, consumer behavior, and market dynamics.

Main Trends and Their Impact

1. Shifting Markets and Revenue Pools

• New business models driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades could expand automotive revenue pools by approximately 30%, adding up to USD 1.5 trillion by 2030.
• Vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but at a slower rate of ~2% annually due to the rise of shared mobility.
• The traditional car sales will be complemented by on-demand mobility solutions and data-driven services, significantly increasing the overall automotive revenue.

2. Changes in Mobility Behavior

• By 2030, up to one out of ten cars sold could be shared vehicles, indicating a major shift in consumer behavior.
• City type will replace country or region as the key segmentation dimension, as urban environments with high population density and economic development will see more transformation in mobility behavior.
• Urbanization and macroeconomic growth in emerging economies will drive this shift, especially in high-income dense cities where shared mobility is more attractive.

3. Diffusion of Advanced Technology

• Autonomous driving could account for up to 15% of new car sales by 2030, once technological and regulatory challenges are resolved.
• Electrification will become more widespread, with the share of electrified vehicles in new sales potentially ranging from 10 to 50% by 2030.
• Battery costs are expected to decline significantly, leading to cost competitiveness with conventional vehicles and increased adoption of electrified powertrains.

4. New Competition and Cooperation

• Incumbent players will need to compete and cooperate across multiple fronts in a more complex mobility landscape.
• New market entrants are likely to target specific, economically attractive segments before expanding into broader areas.
• The automotive value chain will evolve as technology and business models change, creating opportunities for new players and reshaping traditional OEMs and suppliers.

Key Perspectives on the 2030 Automotive Revolution

• Revenues will increase significantly due to new services, creating a USD 1.5 trillion market.
• Connectivity will enable cars to become platforms for personal activities, increasing the demand for upgradable vehicles.
• Autonomous technology will eventually allow for fully driverless cars, but the transition will be gradual and require addressing regulatory and consumer acceptance hurdles.
• Electrification will vary by region and city type, with higher adoption in developed, dense cities and lower in rural areas due to infrastructure limitations.

Forecast Methodology and Scenarios

• The study uses a proprietary quantitative market model integrating macroeconomic development, future mobility behavior, and the diffusion of electric and autonomous vehicles.
• Two scenarios are presented: high-disruption and low-disruption, which highlight the potential divergence in the adoption of technologies and mobility solutions based on regulatory, technological, and consumer factors.
• High-disruption scenarios assume more rapid adoption of shared mobility, autonomous driving, and electrification, while low-disruption scenarios suggest a slower, more traditional transformation.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is on the brink of a significant transformation driven by technological and behavioral shifts. While some may argue for the decline of the industry, the report suggests that growth is accelerating due to new revenue streams and the continued expansion of emerging markets. Incumbent players must make strategic decisions to prepare for this change, including embracing partnerships, adapting their organizations, and redefining their value propositions. The future of mobility will be more diverse, connected, and autonomous, with city type becoming the primary determinant of mobility behavior and market dynamics.