Cicitas-英国经济如何从冠状病毒中恢复（英文）-2020.6-60页_997kb

REBOOTING BRITAIN: Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the Institute of Economic Affairs and CIVITAS, examines the UK's response to the economic and social impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. It explores the effectiveness of lockdown measures, the role of government intervention, the long-term economic consequences, and the potential for recovery through market mechanisms and policy adjustments.

Main Viewpoints

• The Role of the State: The pandemic has reignited debates about the role of the state. While some argue for increased government intervention and public spending, the report suggests that the evidence does not support this view. Instead, it highlights the flexibility of private businesses and civil society, which have fared better than state-planned systems.

• Health vs. Economic Impact: The pandemic is primarily a health and social crisis, but its economic consequences are significant. The report acknowledges the importance of saving lives, but also warns of the long-term health and wellbeing effects of economic shutdowns, such as mental health issues, domestic violence, and reduced access to healthcare.

• Lockdown Effects: The official lockdown has exacerbated the economic impact, particularly in the short term. The report argues that without additional effects, the lockdown's necessity is questionable. It also notes that the economic slump is likely to be deep and prolonged, with potential long-term scarring effects.

• Recovery Prospects: The report suggests that a more liberal market approach could accelerate recovery. This includes reducing planning restrictions, occupational rules, and employment obligations to increase flexibility in the labor market. It also recommends focusing on supply-side reforms and skills training rather than direct job creation.

• Fiscal Impact: The economic crisis has led to a significant increase in public sector net borrowing (PSNB) and net debt. The report estimates that PSNB will reach £273 billion in 2020-21, or nearly 14% of GDP, with net debt rising to over £2 trillion. However, it argues that these fiscal costs could be manageable without raising taxes or implementing 'Austerity 2.0'.

• Global Comparisons: The UK's economic response has been similar to other European countries, but Sweden's more liberal approach has resulted in less economic damage. The report also notes that international supply chains have remained relatively stable, suggesting that protectionism may be counterproductive.

• Historical Lessons: Past pandemics, such as the Spanish Flu, suggest that lockdowns can help reduce the long-term economic impact by preventing a larger outbreak. However, the current crisis is more severe, with a deeper recession and greater social costs than previous events.

Key Information

Economic Impact

• The UK economy is expected to experience a significant decline in GDP, with a 35% slump in Q2 and a 13% drop in 2020, followed by a 18% rebound in 2021.
• Unemployment is projected to rise to 10% before gradually decreasing as the economy recovers.
• The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggests a more moderate decline of 7% in 2020, with a slower recovery.

Fiscal and Debt Implications

• Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to rise sharply, from £38 billion in 2018-19 to £273 billion in 2020-21.
• Net debt is projected to exceed £2 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching over 100% at the low point of GDP.
• The fiscal burden could be managed without tax increases, given the low interest rates and the eventual recovery of the economy.

Policy Recommendations

• Liberalize Markets: Reduce planning rules, occupational restrictions, and employment obligations to enhance labor market flexibility and economic recovery.
• Focus on Supply-Side Measures: Prioritize targeted tax cuts, deregulation, and investment in skills training over direct job creation.
• Avoid Permanent Fiscal Expansion: While temporary support is necessary, permanent increases in public spending or taxation could be harmful.
• Reassess National Living Wage Policies: Consider a fundamental rethink of planned increases to ensure they do not price workers out of the labor market.
• Avoid Unnecessary Financial Regulations: Additional restrictions on short sellers and emergency support conditions (e.g., environmental obligations, dividend limits) could be counterproductive.

Financial Markets

• The report warns against imposing further regulations on financial markets, as they could hinder recovery.
• It suggests that financial markets, if allowed to operate freely, could play a key role in restoring economic activity.

Future Outlook

• The pandemic may last until the summer of 2021, with potential long-term effects on the economy and labor market.
• The report questions whether the crisis has strengthened or weakened the case for a larger state, arguing that the evidence supports a more market-oriented approach.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the economic impact of the pandemic is severe, the UK has the potential to recover quickly if markets are allowed to operate freely and if policies are adjusted to promote flexibility and productivity. It emphasizes the importance of learning from the crisis to ensure a better response in the future.