2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Myanmar_2017_Article_IV_Consultation_76页_2mb

报告摘要

Myanmar 2017 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2017 Article IV consultation with Myanmar, conducted by the IMF, focused on economic developments, macroeconomic stability, and the need for a second wave of reforms to sustain growth and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The consultation was completed in February 2018, following discussions in November 2017. The IMF Executive Board concluded that Myanmar's economy had stabilized in 2016/17, with a growth rate of 5.9 percent, but noted increased downside risks, particularly from the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State and latent banking sector risks.

Key Economic Indicators

Indicator	2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018	2018/19	2019/20
Real GDP (Percent change)	8.4	8.0	7.0	5.9	6.7	6.4	7.0	7.2
CPI (end-period; base year from 2014/15=2012)	6.3	6.1	8.4	7.0	5.5	5.9	6.1	6.3
CPI (period average)	5.7	5.1	10.0	6.8	5.1	5.6	5.8	6.2
Total Revenue (Percent of GDP)	20.1	22.0	18.7	18.8	18.2	17.4	18.3	18.3
Union Government Revenue (Percent of GDP)	10.0	12.1	10.9	10.7	10.7	10.1	10.6	10.7
Tax Revenue (Percent of GDP)	7.3	7.8	7.5	7.8	8.1	7.8	8.4	8.7
SEE Receipts (Percent of GDP)	9.7	9.5	7.4	7.7	7.0	6.7	7.0	6.9
Grants (Percent of GDP)	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
Total Expenditure (Percent of GDP)	21.4	22.9	23.2	21.3	21.7	21.3	22.3	22.4
Expense (Percent of GDP)	13.8	16.1	17.1	16.5	16.2	15.9	16.4	16.5
Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets (Percent of GDP)	7.6	6.8	6.1	4.8	5.5	5.4	5.9	5.9
Gross Operating Balance (Percent of GDP)	6.3	5.9	1.7	2.3	2.1	1.6	1.9	1.8
Net Lending (+)/Borrowing (-) (Percent of GDP)	-1.3	-0.9	-4.4	-2.5	-3.5	-3.9	-4.7	-4.7
Domestic Credit (Percent of GDP)	24.6	22.9	31.4	25.5	21.2	20.7	18.7	20.9
Foreign Direct Investment, Net (Percent of GDP)	4.4	4.4	5.8	5.3	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.2
CBM Reserves (in millions of USD)	4,444	5,125	4,764	5,134	5,370	6,307	7,244	8,528
Reserves (in months of prospective imports)	3.7	3.8	3.5	3.2	3.0	3.2	3.7	3.9

Main Outcomes and Recommendations

Economic Outlook

Growth rebound: Expected to reach 6.7 percent in 2017/18, driven by a recovering agriculture sector, exports, and increased public spending.
Medium-term potential: Growth is projected to gradually increase toward 7.0–7.5 percent, reflecting continued FDI inflows and improved public investment.
Inflation: Headline inflation is expected to decline to 5.5 percent in 2017/18, but may temporarily rise due to food price shocks before stabilizing.

Fiscal Policy

Fiscal adjustment: The deficit was reduced to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2016/17 from 4.5 percent in 2015/16.
SDGs: Fiscal policy should prioritize achieving the SDGs by increasing social and infrastructure spending while maintaining debt sustainability and reducing central bank financing of the deficit.
PFM improvements: Continued domestic revenue mobilization and expenditure rebalancing are needed to improve public financial management.
Concessional finance: Greater use of concessional external financing can help reduce reliance on monetary financing and bolster foreign exchange reserves.

Banking Sector

Prudential regulations: New regulations have started to reveal previously under-reported banking sector fragilities.
Credit growth moderation: Credit growth has slowed from its peak, helping to reduce financial stability risks.
Reform needed: A second wave of banking sector reforms and a contingency plan to address systemic risks are recommended.

Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy

Exchange rate mechanism: The central bank should formally adopt a new market-determined mechanism for setting the reference exchange rate.
Exchange rate flexibility: Greater flexibility is needed to cushion against external shocks.
Reserve money: Reserve money growth has been moderate, with inflation at 6.8 percent in 2016/17.

Regional and Social Challenges

Rakhine State crisis: The humanitarian crisis has created uncertainty over development finance and investor sentiment. While direct economic impacts have been localized, social costs and long-term impacts are still unfolding.
Peace process: Early and tangible progress toward peace and regional inclusion is essential to improve conditions in affected areas and realize inclusive growth.

Capacity Development

IMF support: The IMF emphasized the central role of capacity development in Myanmar's economic transition.
Statistics improvement: Myanmar has made steady progress in improving its statistics, and participation in the Enhanced General Data Dissemination System is welcomed.

Executive Board Assessment

Economic stabilization: The economy stabilized in 2016/17, but downside risks have increased.
Reforms needed: A second wave of reforms is required to sustain the growth momentum and align with the SDGs.
SDP expansion: The Sustainable Development Plan (SDP) should be expanded to address reform sequencing and regional disparities.
Exchange restrictions: Removal of the last remaining exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices is encouraged.

Conclusion

The IMF remains supportive of Myanmar's economic reforms and transition to a market-based economy. Continued progress in fiscal consolidation, financial sector reform, and exchange rate liberalization is essential to maintain macroeconomic stability and achieve long-term growth and development goals.

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