2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Myanmar_Staff_Report_for_the_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_54页_1mb

Myanmar 2011 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No.12/104 provides an overview of Myanmar's economic developments and policy discussions during the 2011 Article IV consultation. The report highlights the country's transition from a closed economy to a more open and reform-oriented one, with a focus on macroeconomic stability, exchange rate unification, monetary policy reform, fiscal sustainability, financial sector development, and structural reforms to promote broad-based growth.

Main Views and Recommendations

1. Economic Outlook

• Growth: Expected to increase from 5.3% in FY2010/11 to 5.5% in FY2011/12 and 6% in FY2012/13, driven by commodity exports and higher investment.
• Inflation: Projected to decline to 4.2% in FY2011/12 and rise to 5.8% in FY2012/13 as food prices increase.
• Risks: Downside risks include a drop in regional demand and currency appreciation. Upside risks include easing FDI restrictions and improved exchange rate unification.

2. Exchange Rate Unification

• Current System: Myanmar uses a complex exchange rate system with an official peg to the SDR and multiple informal rates.
• Reforms: The authorities plan to move from the official peg to a managed float and eliminate the "export-first" policy.
• Key Steps:
  • Licensing 17 private banks to operate money changing counters at Thein Phyu (TP) center.
  • Licensing 11 banks as authorized foreign currency dealers (AD), though these licenses are not yet active.
  • The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) plans to launch foreign currency auctions and interbank trading upon announcing the managed float.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Establish foreign currency auctions and kyat deposit facility to manage sterilized foreign currency operations.
  • Activate AD licenses in tandem with easing restrictions on foreign currency use for private imports.
  • Transfer state banks' foreign assets to the CBM to provide a reserve cushion.
  • Remove exchange restrictions gradually to reduce market segmentation and appreciation pressures.

3. Monetary Policy Framework

• Current Situation: The CBM lacks a formal monetary policy framework and operates under administrative interest rates.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Grant the CBM operational autonomy and define its primary objective as domestic price stability.
  • Establish a treasury securities market to enable market-based monetary operations.
  • Move to reserve money targeting and use it to guide interest rate decisions.
  • Develop interbank market to support a managed float.
• Authorities' Plan:
  • Draft a new central bank law and welcome IMF technical assistance.
  • Consolidate reserve management at the CBM before announcing the float.
  • Acknowledge the need for technical assistance in setting up a reserve money targeting framework.

4. Fiscal Management

• Deficit Trends:
  • The fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.5% in FY2011/12 due to reduced capital spending.
  • Expected to decline further to 1.25% in the medium term due to increased gas revenues.
• Fiscal Priorities:
  • End deficit monetization.
  • Reprioritize spending to support development and reduce poverty.
  • Increase nonresource revenues and improve public financial management.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Replace commercial tax with a general sales tax and expand tax bases.
  • Establish a single tax payer identification system and promote self-assessment.
  • Strengthen tax administration and improve tax education.
  • Implement fiscal decentralization with clear institutional arrangements.

5. Financial Sector Policies

• Current Challenges:
  • The financial sector is small and repressed.
  • Administrative controls on interest rates, collateral requirements, and branch expansion hinder financial intermediation.
  • A shadow financial system exists due to these controls.
• Recent Reforms:
  • More than 40 new bank branches were opened since March 2011.
  • The list of acceptable collateral was expanded.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Accelerate financial sector modernization to support economic development and ASEAN integration.
  • Phase out deposit-to-capital ratio while strengthening capital requirements.
  • Expand collateral eligibility and ease administrative requirements.
  • Promote joint ventures with foreign financial institutions to transfer technology.
  • Strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks, including loan classification, provisioning, and AML/CFT compliance.

6. Structural Policies

• Growth Constraints:
  • Growth is narrow-based, with heavy reliance on energy and agriculture.
  • Agricultural productivity is limited by poor credit access, lack of land ownership, and inadequate infrastructure.
  • The energy sector is state-controlled and isolated from the domestic economy.
  • Manufacturing is stifled by poor infrastructure, administrative constraints, and high business costs.
• Recent Efforts:
  • Doubled harvest loans to farmers in 2011.
  • Allowed agricultural land leasing for up to 60 years.
  • Liberalized private imports of gasoline and palm oil.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Lift agricultural productivity through long-term credit and land reform.
  • Promote private sector development by reducing administrative controls and improving business climate.
  • Support rural development and inclusive growth through targeted investments in infrastructure and education.

Key Information

• Political Context: Political reconciliation is progressing, with the National League for Democracy contesting elections and ceasefire agreements with ethnic groups.
• Economic Reforms: The authorities are pursuing reforms to unify the exchange rate and modernize the financial sector.
• IMF Role: The IMF provided technical assistance and supported the reform process with policy recommendations.
• Document Types:
  • Staff Report: Analyzed economic developments and provided policy recommendations.
  • Debt Sustainability Analysis: Assessed the sustainability of Myanmar's debt.
  • Informational Annex: Prepared by IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank.
  • Public Information Notice (PIN): Summarized the Executive Board's views on the consultation.

Conclusion

The 2011 Article IV consultation highlighted Myanmar's potential for economic growth and development, contingent on continued reform efforts. The report emphasized the importance of exchange rate unification, monetary policy modernization, fiscal sustainability, and structural reforms to promote inclusive and broad-based growth. The IMF encouraged the authorities to proceed with these reforms while maintaining macroeconomic stability and improving transparency and efficiency in the financial sector.